Toledo vs. Ball State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Carson Steele and Ball State Earn Another Upset?

Toledo vs. Ball State Prediction, Pick, Odds: Can Carson Steele and Ball State Earn Another Upset?

The Ball State Cardinals will look to be the first team to knock off Toledo on their home field in Tuesday's MAC matchup.

The Toledo Rockets are 6-3 on the season and 4-0 at home. They'll have another home game on Tuesday, looking to keep their distance in the MAC West, where they lead Ball State by a game.

A Ball State win could move the Cardinals to the top of the MAC West and make them bowl-eligible. There's a lot on the line on Tuesday.

Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Tuesday's game between the Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets.

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Toledo vs. Ball State Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: November 8, 2022
• Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

Toledo vs. Ball State Odds

• Spread: Toledo -11.5 (-110), Ball State +11.5 (-110)
• Total Odds: O/U 51.5 (-110)
• Moneyline Odds: Toledo (-425), Ball State (+350)

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Toledo vs. Ball State Injury Report

Ball State

Questionable: TE Tanner Koziol (Undisclosed) Out: LB Brandon Martin (Leg)

Toledo

Questionable: QB DeQuan Finn (Upper Body)

Toledo Rockets vs. Ball State Cardinals Prediction

Toledo's quarterback, DeQuan Finn, didn't play against Eastern Michigan due to an upper-body injury last week.

Toledo only defeated Eastern Michigan by three points in that game. Finn is questionable and isn't a lock to play against Ball State. It's more likely that he plays, but keep that in mind.

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Finn has led Toledo with 18 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He's also thrown for 1637 yards. Finn doesn't have the best pass protection, but he's been able to make things work.

The offense still averages over 400 yards this season. They've been very balanced, with nearly 188 yards on the ground per game. Meanwhile, the defense has allowed under 350 yards per game and has held teams to under 190 yards passing.

The coverage has been terrific, and the run defense has been just as good. The pass rush has also been very effective.

Ball State's offense averages close to 400 yards per game on offense. The run game has been great behind Carson Steele, who has added over 1,000 yards on the ground with nine touchdowns. The run block hasn't been as good, but Steele has still earned close to five yards per carry on 221 carries.

The Cardinals have also played well defensively, holding teams to under 400 yards per game. They're not nearly as good as Toledo's defense, but Ball State has solid coverage too. They've also done well against the run, despite allowing 189.8 yards per game. They're better than that analytically.

Ball State's pass rush is its weakest portion of the defense, but with the Toledo offensive line struggling a bit, there's a great chance that Ball State can put pressure on Finn, who is also dealing with an injury.

Ball State has won four of its last five games. The Cardinals have been on a roll. I'll take the 11.5 points in this game with Ball State. Toledo's struggled over their last four games, especially on the defensive end, giving up at least 24 points in their previous four games.

Toledo Rockets vs. Ball State Cardinals Pick

• Ball State +11.5 (-110) Bet $110 to Collect $190.