Notre Dame vs. Boston College Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can Drew Pyne, Notre Dame Cover the Big Spread?
Notre Dame vs. Boston College Prediction, Pick, and Odds: Can Drew Pyne, Notre Dame Cover the Big Spread?
It's been a rough year for Boston College and its fanbase. The Eagles are sitting in last place within the Atlantic Division at 3-7, averaging just 19 points per game while surrendering 28.8 points per game. The rushing attack is nearly non-existent and on the defensive side of the line of scrimmage, Boston College is allowing 4.5 YPC or more in its last two games played.
Senior quarterback Phil Jurkovec transferred from Notre Dame to BC a couple of seasons ago and while it's been a tremendous struggle for the Eagles this season, backup Emmett Morehead played a good game in their recent 21-20 win over NC State. The sophomore threw three touchdowns and completed over 60 percent of his pass attempts, including the go-ahead touchdown pass with a couple of minutes left, to end BC's four-game losing slump against a quality opponent. Their pass defense is a huge strength, limiting opposing quarterbacks to under 200 yards and one touchdown in three consecutive outings.
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Notre Dame began the season with a ton of adversity, including the loss of incumbent starting quarterback Tyler Buchner, who has been replaced by sophomore Drew Pyne. Pyne played poorly in his first action against Marshall but since then, he's strung together several games with three or more touchdown passes. He's not a high-volume passer but he did complete 81 percent of his attempts against Navy last weekend, torching their secondary for four touchdowns and 269 passing yards in a 21-17 win.
Notre Dame is an independent school but it plays many of its games against ACC opponents. Will Boston College be ready to play spoiler and seek its second straight win against a road opponent? Or will the Fighting Irish cruise to its eighth victory? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Saturday's matchup between the Boston College Eagles vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Notre Dame vs. Boston College Start Time and Where to Watch
Date: Saturday, November 19
Game time: 2:30 p.m. ET
Where to Watch: Peacock
Notre Dame vs. Boston College Odds
Spread: Boston College +21.5 (-110), Notre Dame -21.5 (-110)
Total: Under 46.5 (-115), Over 46.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Boston College (+950), Notre Dame (-1650)
Click here for Notre Dame vs. Boston College Odds
Notre Dame vs. Boston College Injury Report
Boston College
QB Phil Jorkovec (DTD - Knee)
Notre Dame
WR Tobias Merriweather (DTD - Undisclosed), OL Pat Coogan (Out - Knee), QB Tyler Buchner (Out - Shoulder)
Notre Dame vs. Boston College Prediction
These two teams are familiar with each other based on recent head-to-head matchups, but they are also similar in terms of the change under center. Emmett Morehead and Drew Pyne are sophomore quarterbacks tasked with leading their respective offenses, which has been an easier journey for Pyne with the personnel that surrounds him. This includes first-year head coach, Marcus Freeman, who took over for one game in the absence of Brian Kelly late last year while giving Ohio State a tough 21-10 win in the opening week of the 2022 season.
The Irish like to establish the run early and often as its formula to win games. Notre Dame has attempted over 45 carries in six of its ten games played, while asking Pyne to throw under 30 passes in most matchups. It's a recipe that has worked for the Irish, who went pass-heavy in a 26-21 loss to Marshall in Week 2. Navy was stout in the trenches, holding the rushing attack to 1.9 YPC despite 34 carries, which forced Pyne to be a high-efficiency passer with an 81 percent completion rate and four touchdowns through the air. It may not be required against Boston College.
The Eagles' run defense has looked OK in some spots, but they are a bad collective unit stopping the run overall, allowing 4.1 YPC and 19 rushing touchdowns in ten games this season. That includes surrendering four rushing touchdowns against Duke's run-centric scheme only a couple of weeks ago, which resulted in a 38-31 loss. Third-year head Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley got to six wins in each of his first two seasons with the Eagles but it's shaping up to be the worst year of his tenure in 2022. BC will have two chances to finish 5-7, but winning on the road in Notre Dame is not an easy feat.
Emmett Morehead took over in late October, and he kept the Eagles competitive against a red-hot Duke team in early November. The sophomore has thrown over 300 yards and three touchdowns in consecutive games, including the most recent performance against NC State, which led to a go-ahead touchdown to end BC's four-game losing slump. Morehead is the X-factor driving the Eagles' offense, but Notre Dame has an incredibly talented secondary that has only allowed one 300-yard passer this season.
Notre Dame has won all five previous head-to-head matchups outright, including three consecutive wins by double-digit points. The Irish are only 2-4 ATS at home this season, while BC is 1-4 ATS on the road. The public is all over Boston College keeping the final score to three touchdowns or less at +21, with 91 percent of the action on the Eagles to cover. They did just earn a huge road win over NC State with their new quarterback, but Notre Dame has a complete defense and a run-centric scheme that will chew the clock and keep the Eagles' offense on the sidelines for most of the afternoon.
Notre Dame struggled against Navy's unique triple-option scheme, but it will get back on track with another three-touchdown win over Boston College as it looks to stay ranked inside of the AP Top 25 heading into the final week of the college football season. Give me Notre Dame to cover the spread as -21-point favorites at home.
Notre Dame vs. Boston College Pick
- Notre Dame -21 (-110) Bet $100 to collect $190. Click here for the best odds, available at DraftKings
Article Author
Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.