Anytime TD Picks. Divisional Round

Picks for this weekend's Divisional Round in the NFL playoffs
Samuel Farley
Wed, January 9, 10:00 AM

Wildcard Weekend saw a number of upsets and it's set us up for one of the most exciting Divisional Rounds in years. Every team left standing has serious asperitions of winning the Super Bowl and the talent to do so. 

 

We're about to have a look at each of this weekend's games and pick of the value in the Anytime Touchdown Scorer market.

 

Colts @ Chiefs – 01/12/2019 4:35pm

 

The Chiefs are -5.5 favorites to beat the Colts, who impressed last time out against the Texans. When searching the sportsbooks it’s been difficult to find any real value for Kansas. Travis Kelce is a dependable scorer but the Colts are good against tightends, likewise the price of Tyreek Hill is too short despite his home run hit potential. Sammy Watkins is an intriguing option and with Hill stretching the field there should be room underneath, however the mystery around his recovery from injury means he’s too risky for us.

 

Andy Reid's Chiefs have been notoriously poor on defense this season. One area that seems like a real weakness is defending tightends, a position that Andrew Luck has favoured this season. Eric Ebron has been a stud this year and is inviting despite a short price, he’s +110 with FanDuel. If you’re looking for an outsider then perhaps Mo Alie-Cox is a huge +800 with FanDuel.

 

Kansas have also been poor against the run, particularly pass-catching backs. Giving up the third most TDs to the rush in the regular season. Marlon Mack (-115 FanDuel) has been very good down the stretch but Nyheim Hines is perhaps a better value option at +375 with 888.

Cowboys @ Rams – 01/12/2019 8:15pm

 

Finding value in this game is incredibly tricky. The Rams are again favorites but the Cowboys defense has been incredibly strong this week. Gurley is the name that stands out but I’m not as confident as I usually would be because of the Cowboy’s linebacker corp and questions over Gurley’s fitness since he was rested in last two games of the regular season.

 

The man that really stands out is Ezekiel Elliott, he’s at a best price of -115 with FanDuel, but you’d have to fancy him against Wade Phillip’s defense who gave up an average of 5.1 ypc during the regular season.

Chargers @ Patriots – 01/13/2019 1:05pm

 

The Chargers find themselves heading to New England to face the Patriots. Phillip Rivers now finds himself against a slightly easier defense after an impressive offensive performance against the acclaimed Ravens.

 

Tom Brady hasn’t looked like his regular self this season and there have been moments in each game this season when it’s become apparent that father time is catching up with TB12. It’s not just the wayward passes that have been a problem, the Josh Gordon saga and the decline of Rob Gronkowski have both given Brady headaches and a limited pool of talent to pass to.

 

The Patriots only gave up 7 rushing TDs during the regular season which leaves me cautious of selecting Melvin Gordon, despite how dominant he’s been this season. The value looks like Mike Williams at +320 with FanDuel, he’s rangy and his ability getting jump-balls makes him a redzone menace. If you’re looking for an even longer bet then perhaps consider Hunter Henry. The tight-end was on the physically unable to perform list since tearing the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee whilst running a route in May. He’s available at +600 with 888, which will be a steal if he manages to reach the levels he was at before his injury.

Eagles @ Saints – 01/13/2019 4:40pm

 

Both of these defenses are playing at a high level. The Saints have been strong all year but the Eagles have improved greatly over the last month or two. The prices for Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas aren’t big enough for consideration despite their obvious potential.

 

If you’ve been on our grids you’ll probably notice that the name which leaps from the page is Nelson Agholor. The Eagles receiver is available at +310 with FanDuel and has been in form with 13 receptions and 3 touchdowns across the last three games.

Sam Farley
FarleyWrites
A lifelong football and basketball fan with years of experience in the sports gambling industry, Sam is known for his incredibly deep knowledge of all things NFL and NBA
Jul 2020
Record
Wins
17
Losses
25
Push
0
ROI
33.57%
0Betslip

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