Super Bowl MVP Outsider Picks
Super Bowl LIII is drawing closer and it's time to begin looking for value in the props markets. The first place we'll look is obviously quarterback and it's no surprise that Tom Brady (+110) and Jared Goff (+235) lead the betting. The Super Bowl MVP is notoriously favorable to QB's with 7 of the last 9 winners playing under center. That's a recent trend, with only 12 of the 19 winners since the turn of the millennium playing there.
The way you're going to bet is going to depends largely on who you think will win the game, with it being very unlikely that a losing player will take home the award. Once you've decided that then let's look for value.
Los Angeles Rams
Think the Rams will win the Super Bowl? The Rams look the easier of the two teams to see the award go elsewhere than QB. Aaron Donald leaps from the page at +1800 and his dominant season can't be overstated. His defensive teammate Dante Fowler is a huge +8000, which looks like good value considering the form that he's been in over the past two games, racking up a combined 1.5 sacks and 3 tackles for a loss.
Todd Gurley is the third favorite with the bookies at only +1400 but be wary of CJ Anderson who at +2200 was far more involved with Sunday's victory over the Saints. Was that game flow, a health issue or a disciplinary measure? It's hard to know and that makes Gurley far too short.
New England Patriots
Tom Brady could win his fifth Super Bowl MVP award in Atlanta. He's been instrumental to the Pats for a number of years but there are signs that he's beginning to succumb to father time.
Outside of the GOAT the obvious choice would be Sony Michel. He's been hot down the stretch and if the Patriots rely on the run to win then it only improves the chances of TB12 not winning the award. However, if you've learned anything from playing fantasy football it's that you can't always trust a Bill Belichick backfield. It's hard to place your money on Michel when James White (+2800) and Rex Burkhead (+5000) are lurking on the sideline too.
Rob Gronkowski has to be the most appealing outsider Patriot. At +3300 his price has clearly been impacted heavily by what has been an underwhelming season. He's looked a shadow of his former self but there are some positives, in Sunday's victory over the Chiefs he had a season-high 11 targets. He's been an important part of the run game with his superb blocking ability but he still has the ability to create mismatches, especially when he is single covered. With rumors that he is considering retirement what better way could Gronk bow out than with an MVP performance at the Super Bowl.
Our outsider picks
Aaron Donald +1800
Rob Gronkowski +3300
Dante Fowler +8000