For years, the NFL betting market provided future bets on Super Bowl wins and over/under win loss team totals. However, since sports betting has grown in popularity and legality, bets have also grown to include individual player props and over/unders. We are going to take a look at some of the best individual player over/unders in a different piece, but here, we are focusing on the most valuable season long player prop bets. Check those out below, and let us know some of your favorite player props in the comments!
Patrick Mahomes is the heavy favorite to take home the passing yardage title, and for good reason. But if you are looking for value in this category, the play will be to go with a pass first offense that will be behind a lot, and needing to throw to make comebacks. Insert Jameis Winston, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and perhaps most importantly, new head coach Bruce Arians.
Arians has always been a throw first type of coach, and that shouldn’t be changing in this offense, given the dynamic receiving duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the inept running backs for Tampa Bay. If you combine the yardage thrown by Winston and former backup Ryan Fitzpatrick from last year, it came out to 5,358, which would have won the passing title by over 200 yards. If Winston is able to play the full season, then 11-1 is an absolute steal.
Again, we are looking for big opportunity in these prop bets, and Chris Carson is in line for a heavy workload in Seattle. The Seahawks have been winning football games for the last decade by playing solid defense, and control the clock on the ground. Rashad Penny will take away some carries in the middle of the field, but Carson will be the unquestioned goalline back, which benefits greatly in this type of prop bet.
Todd Gurley has dominated in this category for two years running, but a lingering knee injury should cut down on his rushing scores in a big way. Carson tied for seventh in rushing touchdowns last year with nine, so if he is able to add just a few to that total, he will be right in the thick of the fight for the top spot.
This line seems too good to be true, as one of the best receivers in football is somehow the ninth favorite in this category. Last year, Thomas was third in the league in redzone targets with 29, and caught 24 of them for an amazing catching percentage of nearly 83%.
The primary concern for Thomas is not another receiver taking his redzone targets away, but RB Alvin Kamara, one of the most lethal running options in the redzone in the game. Even with that bake into his price, the usage for Thomas in the passing game is virtually unrivaled, so getting him at 20-1 in most touchdowns seems like a must bet for us.
Kyle Murray, the #1 pick in the draft in April, is the heavy favorite to win the Rookie of the Year title, and to be fair, anything short of a terrible season will likely be enough for him to take home this award. However, if he does struggle, or unfortunately gets injured, the race will suddenly become wide open.
The common theme has been big opportunity for these longer shot prop picks, and it’s hard to find a running back in this rookie class who is facing less competition for carries than the Raiders first round pick. Jon Gruden loves old school football, and despite bringing in Antonio Brown, he should be leaning heavily on Jacobs to move the offense along. If Jacobs is able to register double digit touchdowns, he will be a serious contender for the Rookie of the Year, so take a sweat on him at nearly 9-1 odds here.
All of these markets are available on FanDuel