We took a look at the best season long player props earlier, and now, it’s time to breakdown some of the player over/unders that are catching our eye. This list includes an under on one of the greatest Quarterbacks to play the game, and an over on a young Quarterback who might be revolutionizing the offensive game this season. Let’s dive a bit deeper.
Tom Brady under 4,140.5 passing yards
The first under might leave some people scratching their heads, given that Tom Brady is fresh off yet another Super Bowl run last season, but hear us out. Brady has only gone over 4500 passing yards twice in the last six seasons, and as Brady gets older, his ability to throw the ball down the field gets weaker and weaker. Combine that with the loss of one of his favorite targets of his career, Rob Gronkowsi, and the Patriots’ commitment to running the ball, and we think Brady will be going under 4140.5 yards this season.
There is an inevitable truth with the Patriots that also help out the under in this case. New England will be winning alot of games, which means several times the Patriots will be handing it off in the fourth quarter to run the clock, meaning less passes for Brady. There is also a good chance that the Patriots will once again have the AFC East locked up with a few games to spare, and if that is the case, there’s a chance Brady will get some rest at the end of the season. It might not feel right, but take the under here.
Lamar Jackson over 16.5 passing TDs
Jackson threw just six touchdowns in his seven starts last season, so it should come as no surprise that the mobile Quarterback has the lowest passing touchdown total with just 16.5. There are a few reasons why we think Jackson should be able to cover this with relative ease. The most important factor is that the Ravens have had a full offseason knowing that Jackson is the starter. Last year, he took over an offense that was designed for Joe Flacco. This year, Jackson is the guy, and as a result, John Harbaugh and company will be able to cater their offense to him.
They have already said they plan to revolutionize the game on offense, playing an uptempo offense that, surprisingly, will be looking to throw it often. If that is the case, Jackson should be able to cover this total, given he will only need a few multi touchdown games to make the cover comfortable. Bank on the talent, and more importantly, the development here, and go with the over.
Josh Jacobs over 5.5 Rushing TDs
We’ve already shared our love for Josh Jacobs when we took a shot on him to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year at +850, so obviously, we like him to hit the over 5.5 touchdowns here. The main concern will be the potential lack of scoring opportunity for the rookie running back. Jacobs will undoubtedly be the goal to go back for this team, and perhaps more importantly, they don’t have much of a redzone threat in the passing game, save for the newly acquired Antonio Brown, who will likely need some time to mesh with QB David Carr. All these signs point to a potential slam dunk over of 5.5 rushing touchdowns.
Allen Robinson Under 885.5 Receiving Yards
Robinson has gone under this mark in every year of his career expect for his breakout year in 2015, though to be fair to him, this includes the year that he only played in the season opener before tearing his ACL. This year in Chicago, there seems to be too many mouths to feed to like the over for Robinson. The emergence of players like Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller will cut into his target share, and the Bears also love to get Tarik Cohen out of the backfield involved in the passing game.
On top of all that, Robinson faces a tough schedule for individual matchups, as he will likely be shadowed by divisional cornerback stars Darius Slay (Lions), and Xavier Rhodes (Vikings). Lastly, the Bears will look to win games just like they did last year: by playing tough defense, and control the clock on the ground, minimizing the potential mistakes of young QB Mitch Trubiksy. Add up all of these factors, and the under yards for A-Rob has to be a considerable favorite here.