Last week’s slug-fest in Jacksonville did not help out the NFL’s image when it comes to Thursday Night Football. However, this week we get the Green Bay Packers hosting the Philadelphia Eagles. This season those two teams are averaging 22.3 points between them. While it might start a little slow off the back of a short week, this game has the potential to be a shootout in Lambeau Field.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, 8:20pm ET Thursday September 24th, 2019
1u – Green Bay Packers -4 @ -109
- Home teams are 12-3-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football in the last 16 games*
- Per Statschecker, the Eagles are 3-6 ATS following a loss
This game is a tough one to call, because 4-to-5 points is a lot to be giving a team as good as the Eagles. However, the Eagles are extremely banged up in their secondary and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense is primed and ready to go after three really tough matchups to open the year. The other complicating factor is the coaching. Doug Pederson has earned the right for this to be considered a coaching mismatch against rookie Matt LaFleur. In fact, backing a rookie head coach on a Thursday night is not something I am normally comfortable with. However, much of that worry is negated when your QB is Aaron Freaking Rodgers.
The Eagles offense has been solid this season, but much like the Packers it has struggled at times. Now they face a Packers defense who are better than advertised, having allowed just 35 points in total this season. The Eagles should test that, as they have scored at least 20 points in each of the first three weeks. However, on a short week I will take the home favorite, especially when the road team has the weakest unit on the field.
*does not include Opening Night game as this is not a traditional TNF game
1u – Green Bay Packers Over 24.5 Total Points @ -117
The Eagles secondary lost their best player, Ronald Darby, this week
The Packers have yet to click on offense and still averaged 24 points the last two weeks
I was thinking about the over in this game, but I am just not certain what we will see from the Eagles with how banged up they are on offense. Therefore, I am going to look to take advantage of a banged-up Eagles secondary and back the Packers and Rodgers to run away with this one. Thursday Night Football is often mocked for being low scoring. However, last season the home team scored over 25 points on 9-of-13 occasions. The Packers offense is due to break out under new head coach Matt LaFleur and this feels like the game in which they do it.
By Ben Rolfe