NFL Week 4: Sunday Picks

Week 3 could not have gone much better. After a struggle on TNF we saw a return of 5-0 on Sunday before consolidating with a 1-1 finish on MNF. Now heading into Week 4, we are off to a better start with a 1-1 return from Thursday. Let’s see if we can find another good return from a week in the NFL which can be extremely hard to call.

All statschecker stats are since the beginning of the 2018 season unless stated.

Here are this week’s NFL Picks:

Bet of the Week

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 pm EST

1u – Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 @ +100

• Per statschecker, the Chiefs are 7-2-1 ATS on the road and 5-0-1 ATS on the road after a win
• The Lions have won their games this season largely by relying on the mistake of their opponents. The Chiefs have just one turnover this season.

I was all over the Lions last week against an Eagles team that had looked sloppy and was struggling on defense. This week is a completely different proposition against a Chiefs team that has speed to burn. Darius Slay is limited in practice, which is really not good when facing a team with the speed of the Chiefs. The Chiefs run game also found it legs last week and therefore the Lions will need to prepare heavily on both fronts. The Lions offense has flashed this season, but can they stay with a speedy Chiefs team indoors on turf? No is my answer and the stats back it up. The Chiefs are also 9-5-1 ATS following a win and 10-4 ATS in day games.

1u – Over 54.5 Total Points -6.5 @ +100

I spoke above about the potential of the Chiefs offense, and after seeing the Eagles put up 24 on the Lions last week, I am expecting the Chiefs to get to the 30 this week. That means I only need 25ish points from a Lions offense which ranks third in the league in aDOT, against a Chiefs defense which can be vulnerable against opposing passing games. I am expecting the Lions to put up a fight in this one and with Chiefs road games seeing the over sit at 8-2 I feel good putting a unit on the over here.

Washington Redskins @ New York Giants | 1:00 pm EST

1u – Washington Redskins +3 @ -109

• Per statschecker, the New York Giants are 1-7-1 ATS after a win and 0-3-1 ATS when playing at home after a win
• The Redskins averaged 24 points per game in their first two games of the season

These two teams come into this game on very different ends of the spectrum. The Giants are riding high after a spectacular come back victory from Daniel Jones. However, the victory last week covers up some pretty serious cracks. They will be without Saquon Barkley for the foreseeable future and they have another week to manage without Golden Tate. In addition, their defense has allowed an average of 31.33 points per game and lack talent at all three levels.

The Redskins are coming off a terrible performance against the Chicago Bears. However, the Bears defense is extremely talented and will shut down many better offenses this season than the Redskins. The key here will be if Case Keenum can suit up, but his return to practice on Thursday is a step in the right direction. This spread is perhaps not as wide as I hoped it would be, but these two teams are of a similar level and the Redskins may actually have the slightly better all-around team with Barkley missing.

Oakland Raiders @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 pm EST

1u – Indianapolis Colts -6.5 @ -110

• Per statschecker, the Colts are 4-2-1 ATS as home favorites
• The Raiders have lost by double digits each of the last two weeks and are 6-11 ATS as underdogs the last two seasons

The Colts have had an interesting season so far. They blew a chance in Week 1, before getting fortunate in winning their next two. However, their offense has looked solid with Jacoby Brissett in charge, and they may not need much more against the Raiders. Their defense is a slight concern, as they have struggled a little against the run and quite a lot against the tight end, the two biggest strengths of this Oakland offense. However, the game plan against the Raiders will be much more focused against those elements, with the Raiders lacking serious game breaking threats outside of Tyrell Williams at receiver.

I came into this season egging Oakland as winning three or less games, and their Monday Night Football performance in Week 1 may be the red herring that leads us to over value them. The Colts are a significantly better team, and the Raiders have had a brutal travel schedule, with reports having them flying back to the West Coast between these two games in Minnesota and Indianapolis.

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | 1:00 pm EST

1u – Under 42 Total Points @ -105

• The New England Patriots defense has allowed just three points when on the field this season
• The Buffalo Bills have not allowed any opponents to score 20 or more points this season, with an average of 15.66 points per game

The two undefeated teams in the AFC East do battle this week in what could be a fascinating game. Given the level of competition they have each faced so far, we do not what their true talent level is at this stage. The one thing that has been impressive from both teams has been their defense. The Patriots defense has been incredible, shutting down each offense which has come their path. The Bills defense has picked right back up where they left off this season. Expect this game to be a tight affair with the under being the side to take on this one.

By Ben Rolfe