When the season began, ESPN picked this game to feature on Sunday Night Football as a match-up between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. With all due respect to Jacoby Brissett, he doesn’t bring the same excitement to this game that Andrew Luck would have. Even so, the battle between he and Patrick Mahomes has the potential to be very entertaining.
The Chiefs head into the game as 11-point favorites, but the Colts have enough roster talent to keep this game close for four quarters. As always, you should be consulting our Statschecker tool before you make your final wagers. This piece will walk you through five intriguing nuggets you can find there.
- The return of T.Y. Hilton matters
The Colts suffered an ugly defeat to the Raiders last Sunday, but it’s worth noting they were forced to play without their most dangerous wide receiver. T.Y. Hilton should be ready to go on Sunday night which will be a massive boost to Indianapolis’ passing game.
The talented wideout has found the end zone in four out of his last five games for the Colts. The Chiefs defense will give him a lot of attention, but this is not a great secondary. Don’t be surprised if Hilton’s presence on the field opens up some opportunities for his offensive teammates to make big plays.
- The Chiefs are really good at home
It’s no secret that Kansas City possesses one of the best rosters in the NFL. That also means it shouldn’t surprise you to learn that the Chiefs are great at home. They’ve actually won 10 of their last 11 Sunday games at Arrowhead.
That means Brissett and company should expect to deal with a lot of crowd noise on Sunday night. That might force the former NC State quarterback into some errant throws under pressure. If the Chiefs defense can use their home field advantage to force turnovers this game could get out of hand.
- Tyreek Hill’s status is important
At this point, it’s still unclear whether or not Hill will make it back in time to play against the Colts. Even if he does play, he shouldn’t handle a full workload. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a factor.
Hill’s big play ability makes him a threat to score every time he touches the football. He’s scored at least one touchdown in each of his last two games against the Indianapolis defense. Frank Reich and his coaching staff will be praying he stays on the inactive list Sunday night.
- Both teams like to hit the over
One interesting nugget we learn from Statschecker is that both teams have hit the over in three of their four games on the current campaign. That’s not a huge surprise for the Chiefs given all of the talent they have on offense, but it might catch you off guard as it relates to the Colts.
To put it plainly, there’s real shootout potential in this game. The Chiefs are a great bet to score at least 28. Don’t be surprised if the Colts find a way to get their final tally into the 20s as well. The over isn’t a lock here, but if you are a fan of hard-fought, defensive games then you should watch something else on Sunday night.
- Patrick Mahomes didn’t throw a touchdown last week
The Chiefs showed a lot of moxy in getting by a deceptively tough Lions team last week. Mahomes led a big fourth quarter drive to win the game, but curiously, he didn’t throw a touchdown against Detroit.
The chances of him being kept off the scoreboard two weeks in a row seem pretty remote. Darius Slay is a really talented corner for Detroit, but he doesn’t have enough help to shut down the Chiefs’ star-studded group of wide receivers. Expect Mahomes to come back with a vengeance in this game.
Lean towards the Chiefs to cover
The Colts are a solid team, but they don’t have the firepower to keep up with Kansas City at home. That means your money should back Kansas City this week.
Do not, however, get overly ambitious with any of your wagers. The over is tempting, but don’t discount Indianapolis’ ability to grind out yards and time on the ground. To put it simply, avoid the over/under wager in this game.
Making a moderate wager on the Chiefs to cover is the way to go for Sunday Night football. This game will stay close for a half, but Kansas City will pull away and win comfortably in the third quarter.