NFL Week 6: Early Picks
Five weeks of the NFL season are in the books and it was yet another successful round for the underdog.
Seven underdogs won against the spread with six of those resulting as outright winners.
Naturally, favorites losing will stir the pot and cause a bit of over-reaction as the Week 6 lines open.
Take a look at some early lines that will surely move due to Week 5’s results:
Denver’s early-season struggles were put on pause as the Broncos (1-4) finally saw a win after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 20-13.
Running back Phillip Lindsay was the pulse of the Broncos’ offense rushing for 114 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, adding four receptions for 33 yards.
Wide receiver Courtland Sutton got it going through the air catching four passes on a team-high seven targets for 92 yards and one touchdown.
The Tennessee Titans moved to 2-3 after falling at home to the Buffalo Bills 14-7.
There weren’t many positives for Tennessee as the offense was held scoreless in the first half and allowed five sacks on quarterback Marcus Mariota. On the other side, the Titans defense had four sacks and an interception.
Running back Derrick Henry was the lone bright spot rushing for 78 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries.
Take the Titans with the points, and I’ll sprinkle some on the money line at (+120).
The Broncos are 1-3 against the spread but have stayed alive by playing defense and running the ball. With that said, my feeling is that the Titans do both of those things better.
The recent offensive struggles may cause this line to move during the week, but my money is on the Tennessee defense to outlast Denver regardless of the spread.
Pick: Titans (+2.5)
Christian McCaffery put on a clinic in Carolina on Sunday as the Panthers (3-2) defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-27.
McCaffery tied a career high with 237 scrimmage yards while totaling three touchdowns. On the ground, he carried the ball 19 times for 176 yards and two TDs. Through the air, McCaffery caught six of his nine targets for 61 yards and another score.
Carolina was locked in defensively with two sacks and three recovered fumbles, including a 56-yard fumble return touchdown by rookie defensive end Brian Burns.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dropped to 2-3 after falling on the road to the New Orleans Saints 31-24.
The Bucs significantly struggled on defense allowing over 450 total yards. Offensively, Tampa Bay couldn’t keep quarterback Jameis Winston on his feet allowing six sacks.
Wide receiver Chris Godwin continued to turn heads as he caught seven of nine targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns.
I like the Buccaneers to cover the point-and-a-half spread. This line reflects the result of the Week 2 meeting between these two teams when the Bucs defeated the Panthers 20-14.
Although the adjustment may not come due to an overreaction, my expectation is this game becomes a pick em’ due to the game location being in London.
Pick: Buccaneers (-1.5)
Atlanta had high expectations to begin the season but have fallen way below that mark. The Falcons dropped a third consecutive game and moved to 1-4 after losing to the Houston Texans 53-32.
The Falcons’ defense was non-existent allowing 592 total yards on offense and failed to record a sack.
Atlanta’s offense couldn’t keep up to Houston despite quarterback Matt Ryan completing 32-of-46 for 330 yards, three touchdowns and one interception.
Meanwhile, the Arizona Cardinals (1-4) finally caught a break in Cincinnati, defeating the Bengals 26-23 on a time-expiring field goal.
Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray was sensational as a dual threat completing 20-of-32 for 253 yards while leading the team in rushing with 10 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown.
Running back David Johnson took care of the rest on offense rushing 17 times for 91 yards, adding three receptions for a team-high 65 yards.
I’m rolling with the Falcons to cover the two-point spread. This spread is the biggest head-scratcher out of all the early lines.
Both teams are sitting at 1-4 which is understandable, however, Atlanta has just been disappointingly bad while the Cardinals have been actually bad.
The line should widen out to at least a field goal or so, and I anticipate the Falcons winning this by at least a touchdown.
Pick: Falcons (-2)
By Stephen Rodriguez
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