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Breaking down each AFC division after 5 weeks

At this point in the NFL season, it is very possible that your preseason division bets are looking pretty ragged. The good news is that you can make a follow-up wager at this point to extract some value from the category. Lucky for you, we’re here to walk you through what you should do in each AFC Division after 5 weeks of the 2019 NFL Regular Season.

AFC East: Stay with the Patriots

We get that it’s boring to bet on the Patriots, but that doesn’t mean it’s the wrong choice. There isn’t a ton of value to be had when backing New England at this point in the season, but even at -1300 it’s still the way to go. For the record, you’ll need to make this wager before they destroy the Giants on Thursday Night Football.

The only other bet worth remotely considering in the division is the Bills at +900. They sport a 4-1 record and their only loss is to the undefeated Patriots. Even so, it’s hard to imagine a team with Josh Allen at quarterback running down the best team in the NFL. Don’t get cute. Stick with the Patriots here and accept your relatively small profit margin.

AFC North: Quoth the Ravens

There isn’t a team in this division who is satisfied with their current record. The Bengals are among the worst teams in football at 0-5. The Steelers have been crushed by Ben Roethlisberger’s injury and sit at 1-3. That leaves the Browns at 2-3 and the Ravens at 3-2 as the legitimate contenders for the division crown.

Going with Baltimore at -150 isn’t a sexy play, but it’s the prudent choice here. Lamar Jackson isn’t a perfect quarterback, but the Ravens have shown they can protect him adequately. That’s something Cleveland can’t say about Baker Mayfield.

In the end, this is a criticism of the Brown’s horrible offensive line play. Teams like that don’t make the playoffs, let alone win their division. That makes the Ravens a relatively safe choice here.

AFC South: Ride the Colts

In sharp contrast to the AFC East, there’s a legitimate argument to be made to bet on any of the four teams in the AFC South at this point in the season. For me, it came down to a choice between the Texans and Colts. Houston has the best quarterback in the division, but their ability to protect Deshaun Watson is still a question. The Colts have the best run game as they showed against Kansas City. They won’t beat themselves down the stretch.

I might prefer the Texans’ chances of winning the division slightly more than Indianapolis, but the way the odds are constructed make the Colts the right wager. I like them at +175 more than I like Houston at +130. I can’t argue if you go the other way, but Jacoby Brissett and company are a slightly better play at this point in time.

AFC West: Don’t deviate from the Chiefs

It’s true that Kansas City hasn’t looked quite as explosive on offense this season, but there are plenty of reasons to believe they’ll hit their stride as the season progresses. That, coupled with the reality that there isn’t another legitimate challenger in the division makes Kansas City the right bet at -450.

Some so-called experts might push for you to take the Raiders at +850. Jon Gruden has breathed some life into the moribund franchise, but they aren’t ready to push Kansas City for the league title. If you want to back Oakland to make a surprising run to the playoffs then I’m fully supportive. However, I cannot advise you to throw your money away by counting on Gruden to guide this team to a magical run to dethrone the Chiefs. Keep it simple here and keep your money with Kansas City.



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