Week 5 taught us a lot about where some teams sit right now in the league. Some teams surprised and other disappointed, but all of it gave us a clearer picture of where they stand. This week we have four teams on a bye, with 13 games on Sunday, including a 9:30 am ET kick off over in London.
Here are this week’s NFL Picks:
Bet of the Week
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Minnesota Vikings -3 @ -115
- Per statschecker, the Minnesota Vikings are 2-0 ATS this season at home
- Per statschecker, the Minnesota Vikings are 3-0 ATS as favorites this season
I am hesitant to feel too confident about this game after my bet of the week blew up in my face last week with the Cowboys implosion hosting the Packers. However, the key here for me is the struggles of the Eagles secondary, which is really struggling this year. Their numbers are somewhat inflated from facing the Jets last week, but that just serves to hide a weakness that the Vikings can look to exploit. The Vikings have been good at home this season, winning both of their games, with their struggles having come against good teams on the road. This should be a fascinating game, and one that could end up going into the fourth quarter.
1u – Minnesota Vikings Over 23.5 Points @ -110
- The Minnesota Vikings have scored 24 or more points in three of their five games this season, and in both of their home games
- The Philadelphia Eagles allowed more than 24 points in their first four games, with only a contest against Luke Falk and the Jets breaking that streak
This is kind of doubling down on the first pick, because the Vikings scoring 24 or more should assure them of winning and covering with their defense. The Vikings should be able to move the ball through the air in this one, and that is if the Eagles strong run defense manages to shut the impressive Dalvin Cook down.
Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Over 60 Total Points @ +145
- The Kansas City Chiefs are averaging 29.6 PPG for and 22.6 PPG against this season
- The Houston Texans are averaging 26.2 PPG for and 22 PPG against this season
I am going to push this line up a little here because I think we see a barn burner type shootout in Kansas City. Mahomes looks healthy in practice and we may yet even see Tyreek Hill this week. Meanwhile the Texans offense is suddenly clicking, and this Chiefs defense have none of the components that have trouble the Texans this season. There could be a lot of points in this one. In fact I could even go higher than 60 here and still like my chances.
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | 4:05 pm EST
1u – Over 57 Total Points @ +175
- The Los Angeles Rams have allowed an average of 42.5 PPG the last two weeks, with their offense averaging 34.5 themselves
- The San Francisco 49ers have averaged 31.75 PPG on offense this season
Have almost come to expect shootouts in Los Angeles now. We had one last time out, and we perhaps should have had one when the Saints and Rams met, had it not been for Brees’ injury. Last season the Rams offense averaged 36.3 PPG at home in the Coliseum, and they are over 30 again this year through two games. However, they also allowed plenty of points at home. They allowed over 20 points in 8-of-9 games last season, and over 30 in six of them. The 49ers offense has got itself clicking this season and should be able to cause havoc for the Rams defense in this one. This game should be a lot of fun following on from the Chiefs and Texans.
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos | 4:25 pm EST
1u – Tennessee Titans +2 @ -105
- Per statschecker, the Tennessee Titans are 2-1 ATS on the road, but 2-0 ATS on the road on Sunday
- Per statschecker, the Denver Broncos are 1-1 ATS at home this season, but 0-2 ATS as favorites
I would pick the Titans to win this outright, let alone just cover the spread. This is the type of game that the Titans love, a defensive brawl in which their offensive line can try and win for them on the ground. I am expecting this to be another low scoring game, with the under another like of mine in this one. We should see a lot of Derrick Henry in this one as both run games looks to take a firm grasp of the game.
By Ben Rolfe