Week 7 sees 12 games pack out the Sunday slate with just four teams on a bye this week. Week 6 was a mixed week for us, but we found success targeting the Eagles defense, so let’s go straight back to that plan of attack this week.
Here are this week’s NFL Picks:
Bet of the Week:
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys | 8:20 pm EST
1u – Dallas Cowboys -2.5 @ -109
- Per statschecker, the Philadelphia Eagles are 1-3 ATS in day games this season
- Per statschecker, the Cowboys are 2-1 ATS at home this season
The Cowboys are sliding in a big way right now after losing three straight games. However, they should be getting Amari Cooper and Tyron Smith back for this game and that will make a huge difference. The Eagles secondary has been a mess and the Cowboys should be able to move the ball consistently and pick them apart. The other element there is that if the offense can move the ball it will limit the exposure the defense has. If the Cowboys can keep their defense on the field for less than 28 minutes they should win this game against a terrible Eagles defense.
1u – Dallas Cowboys Over 24.5 Points @ -110
- The Eagles have allowed 24 or more points in five of their six games this season.
- The Cowboys have scored 24 or more points in all three of their home games this season
Every week we seem to see this Eagles defense get ripped to shreds, well, except for when they played the Luke Falk led Jets. This should be the perfect week for the Cowboys to get their offense back on track with their returning players and follow in the footsteps of the Vikings last week in torching this secondary.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Houston Texans +1 @ +100
- The Houston Texans have won four of their last five games and have averaged 42 PPG the last two weeks.
- The Indianapolis Colts rank 23rd in yards per game and 19th in sacks
This game should be a fascinatingly close contest between two AFC South rivals. The Colts are coming off their bye and desperate to bounce back from their embarrassing loss to the Raiders two weeks ago. Meanwhile, the Texans are coming off an emotional win against the Chiefs and now have to travel again. However, the Texans have finally got some semblance of an offensive line, having allowed zero sacks through their last two games. The Colts pass rush is not strong enough to disrupt the Texans high-powered offense and I can see the Texans putting down another statement win this week.
Oakland Raiders @ Green Bay Packers | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Oakland Raiders +5 @ -102
- The Raiders are 2-0 ATS the last two weeks and are coming off their bye having scored an average of 27.5 PPG in the previous two games
- The Green Bay Packers are coming off a short-rest week having played an emotional game Monday night
A few weeks ago you would have laughed at me taking this line but here we are. The Raiders are flying high coming back from London with a week’s break. Meanwhile the Packers have played two huge games and may be looking ahead to a primetime game in Kansas City next week. These two teams are extremely close in net yards per play this season, and that suggests the Packers should be a half point favorite instead of five points. Teas have had success running the ball against the Packers this season and I was in the stadium to witness Josh Jacobs coming of age last time out against the Bears. Take the Raiders with the points and let’s just hope the referees decide to stay out of this one.
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Arizona Cardinals Over 23.5 Points @ -113
- The Arizona Cardinals have scored an average of 30 PPG the last two weeks against mediocre defenses
- The New York Giants have allowed over 24 points in all but one game this season
The battle of the rookies sees Kyler Murray and Daniel Jones go head-to-head. This Kliff Kingsbury offense appears to have found its mojo the last couple of weeks and now they get another bad defense to go up against this week. Scoring points is suddenly not a problem and should not be this week against a leaky Giants secondary, which has been regularly embarrassed this season.
By Ben Rolfe