Statschecker: Patriots At Jets: 5 Things to Consider

Statschecker highlights five important factors to consider before placing your bets on Monday Night Football
Rucker Haringey
Sun, October 20, 1:22 PM

Sam Darnold’s triumphant return to the Jets’ lineup may meet a harsh reality on Monday Night. New York does get to host the Patriots, but Adam Gase’s offense may run up against a brick wall in the form of the Patriots’ defense.

It’s still going to be very interesting to see just what Darnold and company can accomplish against Bill Belichick’s troops. The Patriots enter the match-up as 9.5 point favorites, which is significantly lower than some spreads we’ve seen them enjoy in recent weeks. To put it bluntly, the oddsmakers seem to believe that Darnold’s return will really boost the Jets.

As always, you’re making a big mistake if you don’t check out our Statschecker Site for the game. It’s the best place on the internet to get all of the information you need before making your final wager(s). Let’s jump right into five tasty bits of information you can get from the site on this week’s edition of Monday Night Football.

 

1. The Patriots are particularly good at night

 

New England is a tough team for opponents to handle under any circumstances. Tom Brady and company are particularly dangerous at night. The ‘Pats have managed to cover the spread in their last six night games.

The good news for Jets fans is that they should enjoy a significant home field atmosphere on Monday Night. We’re not suggesting that will be enough to lead them to an outright victory, but it should prevent the Jets from landing on the wrong end of a blowout.

 

2. This match-up likes to go under

 

Six of the last seven games between these two teams have gone under the total score line. Interestingly, there are lots of reasons to believe both offenses are going to struggle to light up the score in this one.

Darnold’s return helps the Jets attack look competent, but they’re still light on talent at the skill positions. Expecting them to move the ball regularly against arguably the best defense in football is a foolish dream.

The Patriots offense hasn’t been humming on all cylinders this year either. The team leads the league at 31.7 points per game, but they’ve also benefited from five special teams/defensive touchdowns. Don’t be surprised if this turns out to be somewhat of a defensive battle for long stretches.

 

3. Julian Edelman loves playing against the Jets

 

Brady’s favorite target is still battling through a chest injury, but he’s expected to be a full-go by the time Monday night rolls around. That’s bad news for the Jets secondary. Edelman has scored a touchdown in three consecutive games against New York.

He’s exactly the sort of wide receiver who should see a lot of work in this game. The Patriots are going to set up to march the ball down the field via their short passing attack. Edelman is excellent at finding just enough space for Brady to get him the ball. The former Kent State quarterback is an interesting fantasy play this week if you’re looking to back someone under the radar.

 

4. Watch Sony Michel early

 

Michel may not get a ton of carries throughout the entire game, but the Patriots will try to use him to set the tone in the first quarter. That’s why he’s scored the first touchdown for New England in five of the team’s last nine games.

The Jets, of course, know this will be coming from New England. Look for their defense to load up against the run early. The Patriots might need to take a few shots down the field early to loosen things up.

 

5. 8 is the most important number

 

We’re entering Week 7 and the Patriots are only giving up eight points per game. That’s a mind-blowing statistic when you really think about it. New England hasn’t faced a murder’s row of opposing offenses, but it still bodes very poorly for a Jets offense that has struggled mightily to move the football this season.

Ignore the hype about Darnold. He makes the Jets offense competitive. He does not make it excellent. The Patriots defense is going to dominate this game. They may not shut New York out completely, but the Jets will not have consistent success by any measure.

Take the under and lean towards the Patriots

The best bet for this game isn’t a winner, instead it’s the under. If you have the opportunity to take the under at 47 you should jump all over it. It’s a good place to make a hefty wager.

If you’re determined to take a team bet as well, take the Patriots and give up the 9.5 points. Brady and company do have enough firepower to put up a two touchdown win. A final score somewhere around 24-7 feels right.

Rucker Haringey
RuckerHaringey
Sports journalist with an eye for the statistical side of betting. If there's an edge in the numbers, Rucker will find it
Feb 2020
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