This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football was supposed to be a shootout between two of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Unfortunately, it’s very unlikely that Patrick Mahomes is going to participate in this game. That means that the Packers and Aaron Rodgers have a significant edge at the quarterback position.
That doesn’t mean you should rush out and bet your mortgage on the Packers -4. The Chiefs have one of the best offensive minds in the NFL at their disposal. If any coach can come up with a game plan to overcome the absence of a talent like Mahomes, it’s Andy Reid. The Packers defense will absolutely see some looks they haven’t seen on film when this game kicks off on Sunday night.
To really understand how you should bet this game you need to check out our Statschecker site. We’ll give you five tasty nuggets you can find there via this article, but to really prepare yourself for Sunday Night Football, you need to dive in to Statschecker.
1. The Chiefs are struggling at home
One of the strangest details about Kansas City’s early season is that both of their losses have come at Arrowhead. Normally you’d give the Chiefs extra consideration for playing in front of a frenzied home crowd, but it’s important not to overestimate that factor in this game.
The Packers also happen to be 2-0 this season at home. That’s not a massive sample size, but the trends are troubling from the Kansas City perspective. Bet this game much more like a neutral site battle than a true home game for the Chiefs.
2. Sunday Night likes to go low
Eight of the last nine matchups on Sunday Night Football have hit the under. That possibility is absolutely in play with this game. It’s easy to envision a scenario where Kansas City struggles to move the ball consistently against Green Bay’s revamped defense.
If that happens, look for Matt LaFleur to really work to grind this game out on the ground. That isn’t good news for those of you that own Aaron Rodgers in Fantasy, but it’s the quickest route to victory for a Packers team that’s really rolling.
3. This Packers defense is different
Green Bay isn’t suffocating opposing offenses, but they are giving up slightly under 20 points per game. Given the way football is played in the modern era, that’s a pretty impressive accomplishment.
It also adds an extra degree of difficulty to what Reid and the Chiefs offense is up against on Sunday night. The chances of Kansas City running the ball effectively are pretty small. That means they’ll need to try to throw the ball. Do you really trust Matt Moore to come through against this talented Packers secondary?
4. Green Bay is great against the spread
The Packers have sprinted out to a 5-2 start against the spread this season. That’s good for third place in the NFL. In other words, it’s very possible that oddsmakers haven’t caught up to just how good this team is quite yet.
Four might seem like a healthy line on the surface, but you have to ask yourself what Kansas City’s record would be if Matt Moore had started all of their games at quarterback. Four points wouldn’t seem like a lot if the Chiefs rolled into this game at 3-4 instead of 5-2. If Mahomes is really one of the most valuable players in the league then you have to price him into the line like one.
5. The Chiefs aren’t used to being underdogs
Kansas City has already lost two games this year, but Sunday represents the first time they’ll enter a game as an underdog. That’s a weird position to occupy for a team that absolutely oozes confidence when they’re at their best.
The Packers, in sharp contrast, won’t care at all about carrying the target of being favorites on their back. Rodgers and his teammates will saunter into Arrowhead with a ton of confidence.
Everything about this game screams bet on the Packers
The absence of Mahomes is absolutely the key to his bet. The Chiefs weren’t operating on all cylinders with their All-Pro under center. The idea that their offense is going to function at a high level with Matt Moore at the controls is laughable.
There’s also the fact that Rodgers put on an absolute show for the Packers last Sunday. He comes into this game white hot. Supporting the Packers -4 is an easy choice. It’s one of our best bets of the season. We even support teasing it out to -6.5 if you’re looking for a larger payout. This game isn’t in Lambeau, but expect to see the Packers play like they are.