Statschecker: Dolphins At Steelers: 5 Things To Consider

Statschecker highlights five important factors to consider before placing your bets on Monday Night Football
Rucker Haringey
Sat, October 26, 2:16 PM EDT

Let’s be honest. If you want to really lock in and be entertained by Monday Night Football this week you’re going to want to bet on the game. Only diehard Dolphins and Steelers fans are going to tune in otherwise. The battle of Mason Rudolph and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback isn’t exactly going to light up the worldwide TV ratings.

Fortunately, we live in a world where you can simply wager on the game to make it more entertaining. That means you need to know that the Steelers are massive favorites. If you want to back Pittsburgh you have to be willing to give up 14 points to make that happen. The Dolphins are arguably the worst team in the NFL, but do you really trust them to be that bad?

To answer that question you need to consult our StatsChecker Site for the game. It’s a one-stop shop for all of the information you need before you make your final wagers on Monday Night Football or any other Week 8 game. This piece will give you five interesting nuggets you can find on the site, but there’s even more valuable information on the site than we are going to discuss here.

1. The Dolphins can be blown out on the road

Coming into this game, Miami has lost three of their four road games on the season by a margin between 21 and 30 points. If you are afraid to bet on Pittsburgh because you think the Dolphins have a history of being a tough out, then think again.

On the other hand, most of those heavy losses came with Josh Rosen at quarterback. It’s at least possible that playing Fitzpatrick under center could give the Dolphins offense a spark. It’s not going to lead them to an upset at Heinz Field, but it does give this game a chance to stay close for an extended period of time.

2. Don’t expect a shootout

Both teams come into this game with a record of 2-4 in terms of hitting the over. Do not expect these offenses to march up and down the field. It’s easy to envision a scenario where this contest gets mired in the figurative mud.

Betting the over will be particularly treacherous if Pittsburgh jumps out to an early lead. Mike Tomlin will shut his offense down in a hurry if they are fortunate enough to acquire a lead worth protecting. If the Steelers get out to an early lead, they’re going to run the ball at an astounding rate. The under is the logical play here if you feel compelled to bet the score total.

3. James Conner is ridiculous in October

Pittsburgh’s No. 1 running back has scored at least two touchdowns in four of his team’s last five games in October. Expect Conner to have an absolute field day against a Dolphins’ defense that is giving up over 35 points per contest. He’s absolutely worth playing in all fantasy formats this week; daily and otherwise.

4. Don’t sleep on DeVante Parker

Parker isn’t the most reliable receiver in the NFL, but he has managed to find the end zone in Miami’s last three games. That makes him an excellent option for fantasy owners looking for a deep sleeper at wide receiver this week. We wouldn’t necessarily go for him in DFS formats, but we wouldn’t argue with that roll of the dice either.

Remember, the Steelers secondary isn’t exactly bulletproof. They can be had if the Dolphins’ offensive line can manage to give Fitzpatrick a reasonable pocket to throw from. There’s also a chance that Fitzpatrick can escape the pocket and make a few big plays to keep this game somewhat close. If he does, look for Parker to be a recipient of at least one score.

5. Heinz Field is not a fortress

You may feel like the Steelers will get a big boost from playing in front of their home fans. That hasn’t actually happened for Tomlin’s team this year. Pittsburgh is a disappointing 1-2 at home in 2019.

That is a very small sample size, but don’t get caught up in betting on the idea of the Steelers. This isn’t a tough defensive team with an explosive offense anchored by Ben Roethlisberger. At best, it’s a mediocre defense trying to prop up Mason Rudolph at quarterback. The Steelers are fully deserving of their 2-4 record on the year.

Lean towards the Dolphins

Miami’s chances of winning this game outright are almost non-existent, but giving 14 points to a team playing against Mason Rudolph seems like an overcorrection from the oddsmakers. This isn’t one of our best bets of the weekend by any stretch, but it’s a solid lean towards the underdogs. Look for Fitzpatrick to do just enough to keep this game reasonably close. A late touchdown for a backdoor cover seems like the appropriate outcome.

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By Rucker Haringey

Rucker Haringey
RuckerHaringey
Sports journalist with an eye for the statistical side of betting. If there's an edge in the numbers, Rucker will find it
Feb 2020
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