NFL Week 9: Sunday Picks

Week 9 is a mixed week for the NFL. Sunday, we have a London game between the Texans and Jaguars, which should be very entertaining. Then we have a real mix of games, with six of the middle 10 having a projected line below 45. However, there are some bright spots, such as the Buccaneers and Seahawks game, with a projected line of 51 and two mediocre at best pass defenses.

Here are this week’s NFL Picks:

Bet of the Week:

Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers | 4:25 pm EST

2u – Green Bay Packers -4 @ -102

• Per statschecker, the Green Bay Packers are 6-2 ATS this season and 3-0 ATS on the road
• Per statschecker, the Los Angeles Chargers are 2-4-2 ATS this season and 0-3-1 at home

This feels like a matchup between two teams heading in very different directions. The Chargers are 3-5, and frankly are rather lucky to even be doing that well. Two of their three wins this season have come due to the kicking woes of the opposition. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers sit at 7-1, coming off four straight victories. The Packers offense is clicking and their defense is doing enough to give their offense the chance to win games. While designated as a road game for the Packers, it will likely feel more like their home game, and they should be able to hand a fourth loss ATS to the Chargers.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks | 4:05 pm EST

1u – Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 @ -102

• Per statschecker, the Seattle Seahawks are 0-4 ATS at home this season
• Despite having one of the worse secondaries in the league the Buccaneers are actually positive in net YPP this season

I have been one of the biggest detractors of the Buccaneers this season, but they were robbed last week, and they will be feeling that this week. Yes, their offense has made mistakes, but that has largely come against strong opposing defenses, which the Seahawks do not have. My YPP metric has the Buccaneers as two points better on a neutral field this season, so even taking the home field for Seattle into account, this game should have a line closer to Seattle -1 or -2.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (London) | 9:30 pm EST

1u – Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 @ -110

• Per statschecker, the Jaguars are 3-1 ATS in games in Wembley Stadium over the last five years.
• The Jacksonville Jaguars should arguably be two-point favorites according to my YPP metric

London games are hard games to call because the travel can do funny things. However, the Jaguars are veterans at the travel now, and beat first-time travelling, which the Texans are, Baltimore Ravens 44-7 two years ago. Last year they struggled against the Philadelphia Eagles, but that was a Jaguars team in absolute chaos. With Gardner Minshew under-centre that is very different this year, as the Jaguars have confidence and seemingly a building team ethos. This should be a fun game with both teams able to score points and missing defensive starters, but the Jaguars experience in these situations should be enough to see them through.

1u – Over 46.5 Total Points @ -110

• The Jaguars have scored an average of 28 points in their last two games
• The last four Houston Texans games have seen over 50 points scored

Picking the over at Wembley is somewhat dangerous. The last five games at Wembley have all seen the under hit, with the last over being when the Jaguars beat the Ravens 44-7. However, this game has a different feel about it. Both teams are extremely competitive offensively but are both missing pieces defensively. They are both very different teams from the two who combined for 25 points in Week 2 in Houston. Despite the threat of some rain, and the history in this stadium, this game has the feel of a shootout, that could see both teams get close to or over 25 points.

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens | 8:20 pm EST

1u – New England Patriots -3 @ -105

• Per statschecker, the New England Patriots are 6-2 ATS this season (3-1 on the road)
• Per statschecker, the Baltimore Ravens are 0-3 ATS at home this season

The New England Patriots fan in me is screaming at me not to do this. This has the feeling of a statement Ravens win that has everyone talking about how the Patriots are done, and how the Ravens will have their number in the playoff. If, as the 5% of me fears, that Bill Belichick decides to show nothing about his strategy defensively to the Ravens, awaiting a potential future playoff meeting, then this could be a Ravens win, let alone a cover.

However, the stats part of me is telling me to trust the numbers. The ATS numbers this season tell a story. The Ravens are also 12-23-1 ATS at home the last five years according to statschecker. My YPP metric tells me the Patriots should be 5.5-point favorites. Even if you give 2.5 points for home field to the Ravens this game s still a wash and given the Ravens home records that is perhaps over estimating them. This pick is setting me up for heartbreak on two fronts Sunday night, but I have to trust my head and take the Patriots here.

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By Ben Rolfe