NFL Week 10: Early Picks
Week 10 was wild to say the least. Seven underdogs covered the spread with five of them winning outright - the Los Angeles Chargers, Baltimore Ravens, Miami Dolphins, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs.
With that many underdogs winning, surely the early lines will overreact to those outcomes.
Take a look at some of these lines that you’ll want to jump on before they move:
The Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) battled back and grinded out a home upset win over the Minnesota Vikings 26-23 on a 44-yard Harrison Butker time-expiring field goal.
Quarterback Matt Moore was solid in the absence of reigning NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, completing 25-of-35 for 275 yards and one touchdown.
Running back Damien Williams lead Kansas City in rushing and hit top speed during a 91-yard touchdown run for the longest play in Chiefs history. Williams had 12 carries for 125 yards.
The Tennessee Titans (4-5) snapped a two-game winning streak and struggled on the road, losing to the Carolina Panthers 30-20.
Tennessee couldn’t get anything going on offense and were shut out 17-0 in the first half.
Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was a nonfactor getting sacked four times and threw two interceptions while completing 27-of-39 for 331 yards and one touchdown.
He also added a garbage rushing touchdown - finishing with four carries for 38 yards.
Roll with the Chiefs to cover the spread (-3.5). Although there are no official reports regarding Mahomes’ timetable to return from injury, there is always the chance of him suiting up and playing.
Whether he starts or not, it seems as if the Chiefs are starting to play together as a team on both sides of the ball. Meanwhile, Tennessee has had an inconsistent mixed bag of performances this season.
The Cleveland Browns (2-6) continued the ongoing dumpster fire of a season and showed off their true colors in Denver. Cleveland lost a fourth consecutive game in ugly fashion to the Broncos 24-19.
Cleveland’s offense was nonexistent behind an off day from quarterback Baker Mayfield, who completed 27-of-42 for 273 yards and one touchdown.
Running back Nick Chubb was held in check rushing for 65 yards on 20 carries with four receptions for 26 yards.
The Buffalo Bills (6-2) got back on track and took care of business at home with a 24-9 win over the Washington Redskins.
Rookie running back Devin Singletary had his best game this season, rushing for 95 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries with three receptions for 45 yards.
Quarterback Josh Allen was solid and took care of the football completing 14-of-20 for 160 yards and one touchdown, adding eight carries for 12 yards and a rushing touchdown.
I’m taking the Bills with the points (+2.5). Cleveland has all but hit rock bottom and I’m not going to go down with them.
Meanwhile, Buffalo is in playoff contention and are having one of the better seasons in the franchise’s recent history.
The Miami Dolphins (1-7) finally figured it out and snapped a seven-game losing streak with a 26-18 win over New York Jets.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was sensational, completing 24-of-36 passes for 288 yards and three touchdowns.
Wide receiver Preston Williams was his quarterback’s go-to-target, catching five of his team-high nine targets for 72 yards and two touchdowns.
The Indianapolis Colts (5-3) snapped a three-game winning streak in gut-wrenching fashion, losing 26-24 to the Steelers on a missed 43-yard Adam Vinatieri field goal.
Not only did the Colts lose, but they lost starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in the second quarter with a knee injury.
Back-up Brian Hoyer stepped in and completed 17-of-26 for 168 yards, three touchdowns and one major mistake - an interception returned 96 yards for a Steelers touchdown.
Take Miami with the points (+11.5) on the road. The Dolphins have won three consecutive games against the spread and despite being 3-4 ATS on the season, Miami has been competitive with Fitzpatrick under center.
Meanwhile, all nine of the Colts’ games this season have been decided by one possession (seven points or less).
Look for the Dolphins to cover.
By Stephen Rodriguez