NFL Week 11: Early Picks
The wild NFL season continued in Week 10 as seven underdogs covered the spread with six of them winning outright - the Atlanta Falcons, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, New York Jets and the Minnesota Vikings.
After over half of the action resulted in favor of the underdog, the opening lines may be influenced by an overreaction.
Take a look at some early lines that you’ll want to jump on before they move:
Both the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles return from bye weeks to clash in a rematch of Super Bowl 52.
New England (8-1) suffered their first loss of the season two weeks ago, falling to the Baltimore Ravens 37-20.
Quarterback Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense looked out of sorts. Brady completed 30-of-46 for 285 yards, one touchdown and an interception.
Meanwhile, New England totaled just 74 total rushing yards lead by running back James White, who had nine carries for 38 yards and a touchdown.
Last time out, Philadelphia (5-4) picked up a second straight win, defeating the Chicago Bears 22-14.
Quarterback Carson Wentz was sharp and connected his favorite target tight end Zach Ertz early and often.
Wentz completed 26-of-39 for 239 yards and one touchdown. Ertz caught nine of 11 targets for 103 yards and a touchdown.
Roll with the Patriots to cover the spread (-3.5). This line is incredibly low in my opinion.
New England had one slip-up against Baltimore, but this is still the best defense in the NFL, allowing 10.9 ppg.
On top of the defensive dominance, Brady and head coach Bill Belichick definitely have not forgotten about the Super Bowl loss.
New England is 14-5 after the bye week since 2000, and my expectation is they roll past Philadelphia.
The New Orleans Saints (7-2) came crashing back down to earth and snapped a six-game winning streak, losing to the Atlanta Falcons 26-9.
New Orleans’ offense was stagnant for the most part aside form wide receiver Michael Thomas catching 13 of 14 targets for 152 yards.
On the bright side, running back Alvin Kamara returned to action for the Saints and looked back to normal, catching eight of 10 targets for 50 yards, adding four carries for 24 yards.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6) took care of business as the home favorite and snapped a four-game losing streak by defeating the Arizona Cardinals 30-27.
Quarterback Jameis Winston aired it out, completing 30-of-48 for 358 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions while rushing three times for 40 yards.
I’m taking the Saints to cover the spread (-5.5). New Orleans has covered the spread in 66 percent of games this season.
Anticipate a game with plenty of touchdowns, and with the line sitting at under six and seven points, I’m hammering the Saints to bounce back by at least a touchdown.
The Miami Dolphins (2-7) picked up a second straight win on the road, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 16-12.
Miami’s defense showed up in a big way, particularly in the secondary as the team totaled three interceptions against Colts quarterback Brian Hoyer.
Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick provided some of his infamous magic as he rushed in the Dolphins’ only touchdown from 11 yards out in the second quarter.
Fitzpatrick finished completing 21-of-33 for 169 yards with an interception and four carries for 23 yards.
The Buffalo Bills (6-3) fell just short of an upset win over the Cleveland Browns, losing 19-16 on a missed field goal as time expired.
Quarterback Josh Allen made plays all over the field, rushing for two touchdowns and 28 yards on six carries while completing 22-of-41 for 266 yards.
Take Miami with the points (+6.5) on the road. The Dolphins have won four consecutive games against the spread, including three weeks ago when Miami covered a double-digit spread in Buffalo, losing 31-21.
Ideally, I’d like this line more if it moves to seven points, but either way I’m taking the Dolphins to keep the game close against the stumbling Bills.
By Stephen Rodriguez