NFL Week 11: Sunday Picks

Week 11 brings some interesting games. In the NFC the playoff picture is actually starting to look mostly set, so a lot of what we see now is about seedings more so than qualification. In the AFC things are a little more up in the air, and this week we get a blockbuster as the Ravens and Texans go head-to-head in a game that could be for a first-round bye when all is said and done.

Here are this week’s NFL Picks:

Bet of the Week:

Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 pm EST

2u – Dallas Cowboys -5 @ -110

- My YPP metrics have the Cowboys between five and eight points better than the Cowboys  

- The Lions defense ranks bottom-10 in the league against both the run and pass

This line is a good one for me regardless of whether Stafford is playing or not. You want to jump on this before it becomes official and it shifts up to a full touchdown. The Cowboys offense has been impressive this season, and they should move the ball with ease against this Lions defense. It is a realistic thought that the Cowboys could score close to 35 in this game, and even with Stafford I struggle to see the Lions getting over 30.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 pm EST

1u – Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @ +100

- Per Statschecker, the Jacksonville Jaguars are 3-1 ATS on the road

- Using my net-YPP metric the Jaguars are the slightly better team

This is a tough one to call with Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton expected to return. However, the Jaguars are coming off a bye, having been humiliated in London, and that has to mean we see a reaction. Nick Foles is back taking the snaps, and he was impressive prior to his injury in Week 1. I expect the to be a close game decided by a late field goal. In that situation, give me the team who’s kicker has not been all over the place this season.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens | 1:00 pm EST

1u – Houston Texans +4 @ -105

- Per Statschecker, the Houston Texans are 4-1 ATS as underdogs

-Per Statschecker, the Baltimore Ravens are 1-3 ATS at home

This is likely to be the most entertaining game this week, and it is one I expect to be extremely close. Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson are both MVP candidates and should be able to score some points on two relatively mediocre defense. Watson has already gone toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes on the road, and he is more than capable of keeping the Texans in contention in Baltimore. This is another game I expect to be decided late, so give me the team getting the points.

Denver Broncos @ Minnesota Vikings | 1:00 pm EST

1u – Denver Broncos +10.5 @ -118

- Per Statschecker, the Denver Broncos are 4-2 ATS as underdogs

- The Denver Broncos defense ranks in the top-10 against the run and the pass

This simply comes down to this feeling like too many points. The Broncos defense is extremely good, and the Vikings are coming off an emotional win in Dallas. This game should be one the Vikings win, but to win it by 12 or more is a different matter. We already saw the Vikings struggle against a solid defense at home when they hosted the Washington Redskins. The Broncos should be able to keep this at least close, so as odd as it might seem, take the Broncos to keep it within double-digits.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers | 4:05 pm EST

1u – Arizona Cardinals +10.5 @ -110

- Per Statschecker, the Arizona Cardinals are 7-3 ATS this season

- Per Statschecker, the Arizona Cardinals are 7-2 ATS as underdogs

We saw this game on a Thursday night in Arizona just two weeks ago. The Cardinals are really impressing this season, keeping games close and even winning the odd one they probably shouldn’t. I do not see them winning this, but I do think they can make enough big plays, while restricting the 49ers enough to stay within double-digits.

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By Ben Rolfe