Statschecker: Chiefs At Chargers: 5 Things to Consider

Statschecker highlights five important factors to consider before placing your bets on Monday Night Football
Rucker Haringey
Mon, November 18, 11:27 AM EST

The Chiefs dreams of winning the No. 1 seed in the AFC are over. Now it’s time for Andy Reid and company to consolidate things and focus on winning the division. If they want to retain the AFC West crown, knocking off the Chargers on Monday Night Football is an absolute must.

Fortunately for Kansas City, Philip Rivers and company come into this game with an ugly record of 4-6. That’s a big reason why oddsmakers have installed the Chiefs as four point road favorites. That isn’t a ton of points given just how high-powered Andy Reid’s offense is, but when you consider the three-point theoretical home field advantage given to the Chargers it’s clear that Kansas City is regarded as the superior team.

As always, you need to check out our exclusive Statschecker site to learn everything you can about the game before you lock in your final bets. If you don’t take the time to check the site out, you may be leaving hard-earned money on the table. As always, we’re here to give you a taste of what’s available with five key things to consider.

  1. Travis Kelce loves Monday night

If you’re looking for a tight end to back in Daily Fantasy, Kelce should absolutely be your guy. He’s scored a touchdown in each of his last four Monday night games. Look for him to take advantage of the questionable Chargers’ secondary in this game.

Remember, Tyreek Hill is going to get a lot of attention from safeties over the top. That leaves a ton of space for Kelce to exploit in the middle of the field. He may not be capable of giving you an 80-yard sprint to the end zone, but he can easily find 150 receiving yards in this game with a score or two.

  1. That doesn’t mean Hill won’t score

Hill is also a great Daily Fantasy play in this game. He’s found the end zone in four of his last five games. The Chargers don’t have a cornerback who stands any chance of covering him one on one. The only risk at backing him in this game is that he’s going to face double coverage on every snap.

Reid’s innovative play designs should allow him to get some catches in space anyway. Hill isn’t he most consistent receiver on the Chiefs’ roster, but he drips with explosiveness. The Chargers’ defensive staff should be terrified of what he’ll do on Monday night.

  1. The Chargers love the under

Do not get caught up in the prolific career numbers that Philip Rivers has posted at quarterback. He simply hasn’t been that good in 2019. There’s a reason why Los Angeles is 31st in the NFL when it comes to hitting the over.

That doesn’t mean you should rush out and back the over though. There’s a real chance that Kansas City lights up the scoreboard on the big stage. Patrick Mahomes and company do feel as if they’re due for a breakout game. Don’t be shocked if they hit the over all by their lonesome.

  1. The Chargers are plucky underdogs

Three games doesn’t represent a large sample size, but it’s interesting to note that the Chargers are 2-1 as underdogs this year. If you’re inclined to believe that’s going to happen again on Monday night, it will almost certainly be a product of the Los Angeles ground game. Melvin Gordon finally looks like the borderline Pro Bowler he’s been during most of his prime. Austin Ekeler gives Rivers a unique threat out of the backfield. Look for both rushers to be featured heavily in the game plan.

  1. 20.7 is a key number

It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Chiefs don’t put up at least 21 points in this game. That’s really problematic for a Chargers offense that’s only averaging 20.7 points per game this season. If Los Angeles has any chance at all of keeping this game close, they have to find a way to slow things down.

The obvious solution will be to try to run the ball against Kansas City’s porous rushing defense. The clear anecdote for Kansas City will be to jump out to an early lead and force the Chargers to try to keep up with them via the passing game.

This is a strong lean to the Chiefs

Mahomes’ public declaration that this is the best he’s felt since the opening week is really bad news for the Chargers. Add in the fact that it’s a must-win game for the Chiefs and it’s easy to understand why we’re leaning heavily in their direction.

Giving up four points is an easy call. Tease the line out to 6.5 if you really want to win big. There’s a significant chance that the Chiefs offense puts on a master class against their division rivals on Monday night.

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By Rucker Haringey

Rucker Haringey
RuckerHaringey
Sports journalist with an eye for the statistical side of betting. If there's an edge in the numbers, Rucker will find it
Feb 2020
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