NFL Week 12: Early Picks
Week 11 was yet another wild weekend in the NFL season with only four underdogs covering the spread and two of them winning outright - the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets.
Although there were no more than a handful of upsets, the opening lines will still be influenced by the results, past matchups and bye weeks.
Take a look at some lines that you’ll want to consider before they change:
Green Bay Packers (+3) @ San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 PM:
The cream of the crop in the NFC meet in San Francisco in a matchup that could potentially dictate home field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The San Francisco 49ers (9-1) started off slow on Sunday but rallied back from a 16-point deficit to defeat the Arizona Cardinals 36-26.
Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo had one of his best passing performances of the season, completing 34-of-45 for 424 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions.
Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers return from the bye week with sights set on the top seed in the NFC playoff picture.
Last time out, Green Bay (8-2) got back on track defeating the Carolina Panthers 24-16.
Running back Aaron Jones did the heavy lifting, rushing for three touchdowns and 93 yards on 13 carries.
Take the Packers with the points (+3) and I’ll even sprinkle some on the moneyline at +138.
San Francisco has looked vulnerable on offense over the last few weeks without star tight end George Kittle in the mix and his status is up in the air for Sunday night.
With the line sitting at three, I’m taking Green Bay with the points in a game I believe they could win outright and should easily cover.
Since 2016, the 49ers have a 0-4-1 ATS record when playing as a home favorite with the line between -0.5 to -3. Stat courtesy of Statschecker.
Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots (-6.5), 4:25 PM:
The game wasn’t pretty, yet New England kept the wins coming as the Patriots (9-1) defeated Philadelphia Eagles 17-10.
Tom Brady had an up-and-down performance, completing 26-of-47 for 216 yards and finished without a touchdown for the second time this season.
Wide receiver Julian Edelman did, however, throw for a touchdown pass courtesy of a trick play, connecting with Phillip Dorsett for a 15-yard score. Edelman added five receptions for a team-high 53 yards.
The Dallas Cowboys (6-4) bounced back and defeated the Detroit Lions 35-27.
Quarterback Dak Prescott was sensational, completing 29-of-46 for 444 yards and three touchdowns, adding six carries for 18 yards.
One of the biggest surprises this season has been the passing success of Prescott as he leads the NFL in passing after Sunday with 3,221 yards.
Roll with the Patriots to cover the spread (-6.5).
The Cowboys have disappeared at times on the road with a 3-2 record.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have been practically perfect at home with an undefeated 5-0 record. New England also holds a league-best 7-3 record against the spread this season.
This line will most likely move up towards seven points throughout the week, but either way I like New England to take care of business at home.
The Patriots have a 14-1 W/L record as home favorites on normal rest since 2016. Stat courtesy of Statschecker.
Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (+3.5), 1:00 PM:
The New York Jets (3-7) went on the road and picked up a second straight win, taking down the Washington Redskins 34-17.
Quarterback Sam Darnold had himself a career day, completing 19-of-30 for 293 yards and a career-high four touchdowns with an interception.
The Oakland Raiders (6-4) completed the sweep of their three-game home stand by defeating the Cincinnati Bengals 17-10.
Rookie running back Josh Jacobs led the charge with 23 carries and 112 yards. Jacobs leads all rookies in rushing and ranks fourth in the NFL with 923 rush yards.
Take the home underdogs New York with the points (+3.5).
West Coast to the East Coast matchups usually catch my attention immediately and this is one which jumps off the page at me.
Both teams seem to have finally figured it out. Although I don’t anticipate this line moving too significantly, I like the Jets at home as underdogs in what could be a trap game for the Raiders.
Since 2010, the Raiders have a 12-38 W/L record when playing as an away team after traveling 2001+ kms. Stat courtesy of Statschecker.
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