Things are really heating up as we reach week 12 of the NFL season. Yes, there are only seven teams competing for the playoffs in the NFC, but three of the four divisions are extremely tight, as we still have a lot of competition for byes and home field advantage. The AFC is a little more side open in the middle, but then has less to fight for at the top end, with two teams head-and-shoulders above the rest in the race for the bye. Let’s see what value we can find in what should be a fascinating week of football.
Bet of the Week:
Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles | 1:00 pm EST
2u – Seattle Seahawks +1.5 @ -110
- Per Statschecker, the Seattle Seahawks are 4-1 ATS on the road
- The Seahawks are 3-0 ATS as underdogs (all three being on the road in the East Coast time slot)
This game has been flexed out of the Sunday Night slot, and I cannot help but feel that might have been a mistake. This is a huge game for both teams. The Seahawks cannot afford to lose the momentum they gained by beating the 49ers and are coming off the bye. Meanwhile, the Eagles know that winning this game would give them a huge shot at the playoffs. The Eagles defense has looked significantly improved lately, but I still think they have major flaws. Their issues have been somewhat masked by failings with their opponents, or thanks to assists from the weather.
The time slot is an issue for the Seahawks, but they actually have an extremely impressive record in the last five years playing on the East Coast in the 1 pm slot (3-0 ATS this season). Unless the weather plays a big part again this week, I do not see how the Seahawks do not move the ball almost at will this weekend. Give me the better team, coming off their bye week, getting the points, against a team that has been inconsistent on both sides of the ball this year.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Miami Dolphins +10.5 @ -110
- Per Statschecker, the Miami Dolphins are 3-1 ATS on the road
- The Miami Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in the last six weeks, having started the season 0-4
This game is not going to feature on my television very much this week. Neither of these teams gives me any enthusiasm to watch on a weekly basis. Both teams should be able to move the ball and I think we see some points scored. The problem here is I just see the Dolphins hanging around and staying in touch. They are playing hard for their coach and each other and have really improved since coming off their Week 4 bye. The Browns have won their last two but have hardly been convincing for large parts this year. 10.5 points just feels too much, even with a two win team on the other side of the field.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 @ +100
- Per Statschecker, the Cincinnati Bengals are 0-4 ATS at home
- The Pittsburgh Steelers are 8.5 points better in net yards per play than the Bengals
I considered taking the Bengals because of how banged up the Steelers are offensively. However, despite those injuries the Steelers are by far the better of these two teams. They should be able to move the ball at will on the ground and should be able to have enough success through the air to make it work. The Steelers were humiliated last week in Cleveland and they will want to demonstrate to the AFC that they are for real, and a team that will not make it easy for anyone if they get to the playoffs. Last time these two met I considered it to be a close game and the Steelers annihilated the Bengals. I don’t think they will win by 20 points this time, but 10 should be more than possible.
Dallas Cowboys @ New England | 4:25 pm EST
1u – Dallas Cowboys +6.5 @ -110
- The Dallas Cowboys are 3.5 points better in net yards per play than the Patriots
- The New England Patriots have averaged just 18.5 PPG in their last two outings
This is an interesting game, as superb offenses and defenses face off in New England. The risk of snow decreasing has increased my feeling about the Cowboys in this one. It will still be cold, but they should at least have a decent chance of moving the ball through the air. The Patriots will focus on taking away the likes of Ezekiel Elliott and Amari Cooper, but even then, the Cowboys still have weapons. The coaching mismatch in this one makes me nervous, but I simply do not see the Patriots scoring enough points the way they are playing on offense recently to win by more than six points.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers | 1:00 pm EST
1u – San Francisco 49ers -3 @ -105
- The San Fancisco 49ers are 36.5 points better in net yards per play than the Packers
- The Packers defense ranks in the bottom-10 in the league against both the pass and the run
Sunday Night Football is set to be a cracker this week as the Green Bay Packers head to San Francisco. This game will mean we see plenty of flashbacks of draft day when the 49ers passed up local boy Aaron Rodgers for Alex Smith. The way that some of the teams have played coming off a bye this season has me concerned, and with all of my metrics having the 49ers 4-to-6 points better I will look to take them laying the points. I do not like picking against the Packers, but we have seen them struggle enough this season to think they might have issues staying with this 49ers offense.