Statschecker: Packers At 49ers: 5 Things To Consider

Statschecker highlights five important factors to consider before placing your bets on Sunday Night Football
Rucker Haringey
Sun, November 24, 10:39 AM EST

Sunday Night Football this week gives us a tasty matchup between two of the NFC’s best teams. The 49ers aren’t undefeated anymore, but their 9-1 record shows they are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Packers are only a game back at 8-2 and the presence of Aaron Rodgers on their sidelines gives them a chance to win any game anywhere.

San Francisco is the home team and, not coincidentally, checks in as three-point favorites at the moment. In other words, oddsmakers believe that they and the Packers are roughly equals on a neutral field. This is absolutely a game worth your attention.

If you want to bet the game, you must check out all of the information available at our exclusive Statschecker Site for the game. In this piece I’ll give you five interesting nuggets about the big game, but it’s just a small slice of the betting intel you can get by checking the site out yourself.

1. The 49ers are short on weapons

Give Kendrick Bourne a lot of credit for scoring touchdowns in the 49ers’ last three games. However, the fact that many of you are now googling his name to learn who he is accurately demonstrates how short of ability San Francisco is on the outside.

The hope has to be for Deebo Samuel to continue to grow on a week-to-week basis. This will be a tough matchup for the rookie wideout and his fellow receivers. The Packers’ have a terrific combination of pass rush and secondary talent.

2. The Packers are money against the spread

Green Bay comes into this game sporting a 7-3 record against the spread on the season. That’s good enough to make them the second best bet in the NFL through Week 11.

The idea of a strong team like the Packers getting points is enough to get plenty of betting attention. They are one of the strongest underdogs of the season. If you want to back Rodgers and company, consider doing so on the money line instead of just the spread.

3. Aaron Rodgers is a dangerous underdog

Green Bay hasn’t played the underdog role very often this season, but they are 2-0 when oddsmakers don’t install them as favorites. Some of that is due to the uncertainty about the team coming into the season, but some of it is due to over performing expectations.

Rodgers doesn’t have to play like a Hall of Famer every week, but he’s had some big games this season when the Packers needed him to really show up. Don’t be surprised if he conjures up another throwback performance against the stingy San Francisco defense.

4. 29.5 is a big number

It will surprise a lot of you to learn that the 49ers are averaging 29.5 points per game this season. Don’t totally buy into that number though. Their defense has scored more than their fair share of touchdowns to inflate how the offense appears.

That doesn’t mean Green Bay is going to shut Jimmy Garoppolo down entirely, but there’s no certainty about San Francisco’s ability to hit their season average. Fortunately for the 49ers, their defense is only giving up 15.5 points per game. That’s a number you can trust, but it doesn’t mean they’ll play to it against Rodgers and company.

5. Davante Adams can’t find the end zone

It’s amazing that Green Bay is 8-2 considering the fact that Adams hasn’t scored a single touchdown on the season. He did miss time due to injury, but it’s only a matter of time before he finally breaks his scoring drought.

Turning in a 118 yard receiving performance against the Chargers shows that he’s on the right track. Look for Green Bay to work to isolate him against Richard Sherman early and often on Sunday night. That’s a matchup the Packers correctly believe they can exploit.

Lean towards Rodgers and the Packers

Betting against Aaron Rodgers in a big game on prime time television is a great way to lose a lot of cash. We’re not saying you should put a large wager on Green Bay in this game, but the value does fall in their direction. Supporting the Packers via the money line is a reasonable option, but we recommend taking the three points. This game could easily come down to a field goal in the final seconds.

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By Rucker Haringey

Rucker Haringey
RuckerHaringey
Sports journalist with an eye for the statistical side of betting. If there's an edge in the numbers, Rucker will find it
Feb 2020
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