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Here's our expert handicapper Ben Rolfe's betting picks for the Thanksgiving day games!

Thanksgiving is always a fantastic day. Weather it is family, food or football, there is something for everyone to enjoy. There may not be three blockbuster games this week, but the second two at least have some serious playoff implications. We also have two division rivalries, both of which are rematches of last year, and should make for some hard-fought football at the very least.

Here are this week’s NFL Picks:

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions | 12:30 pm EST

2u – Chicago Bears -1 @ -110

  • Per Statschecker, the Detroit Lions are 4-7 ATS this season
  • The Chicago Bears have covered the spread just three times this season, but one of those was against the Detroit Lions

This is not going to be a very entertaining game to kick off the Thanksgiving slate. Since 2003 the favorites are 30-11 ATS, including going 3-0 last season. The Bears are not inexperienced to this spot, having played in this exact same game last year as well. Last season the Bears came out seven-point winners, and now against a Detroit team that just lost to the Redskins I fancy them to bounce back and win by a similar margin.

1u – Under 39 Total Points @ -110

  • Per Statschecker, the under is 8-3 in Chicago Bears games this season
  • The last five Bears game has seen less than 40 points scored, including the game against the Lions game three weeks ago

There are plenty of aspect at play here. We have Jeff Driskel for the Lions, who scored just 16 points against the Redskins defense, and just 13 points against the Bears two weeks ago. We also have a woeful Bears offense that have not scored more than 20 points since Week 7. Throw in that betting the under on divisional games after Week 11 has returned over 50 units of profit since 2003 and we have ourselves a nice play here.

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys | 4:30 pm EST

1u – Under 45 Total Points @ -110

This game is a fascinating combination of two teams who have yet to beat any teams of real substance. Both have faltered when coming up against the better teams in the league, and therefore, this game is a test of where both of these teams stand in the hierarchy of the league right now. As good as the Cowboys offense has been, I am going to take the under in this game. The under is 8-3 in Bills games this season. The Bills have the defense with which to restrict this Cowboys offense. They can force the Cowboys to keep the ball on the floor and grind the clock down. Meanwhile, I do not expect the Bears offense to go wild either. This game has the makings of a 21-20, 24-17 type game, which would be good for the under in this one.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons | 8:20 pm EST

1u – New Orleans Saints -6.5 @ -113

  • Per Statschecker, the New Orleans Saints are 4-1 ATS on the road
  • The Saints beat the Falcons 31-17 on Thanksgiving last season

This line is certainly interesting given the way the Falcons handled the Saints just a couple of weeks ago in New Orleans. However, for me the Saints are by far the superior team in all aspect and will be out for revenge in this one. The Falcons were absolutely dominated last week by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, and the Saints had a scare against the Panthers. This is the week for the Saints to put it right and lay down a real marker for their shot at earning a bye. After that they then get a 10-day break before their next game.

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By Ben Rolfe

Article Author


Ben is a football guru with years of experience covering the NFL. You can always count on Ben to pick a winner on Sunday!


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