The bye weeks are done, and the stretch run is upon us. An extra two games have been taken off the slate with the Thanksgiving games, but there is still plenty of action to be found on the slate. This week is a strange week with a number of road teams being favored, making it a tough week to make picks. However, sometimes you just have to cut through the noise and trust that the better team is going to get the job done.
Here are this week’s NFL Picks:
Bet of the Week
New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00 pm EST
2u – New York Jets -3 @ -110
- Per statschecker, the Cincinnati Bengals are 0-4-1 ATS at home this season
- The New York Jets have won by an average of 18.3 points per game the last three weeks.
Laying down two units on the New York Jets as favorites on the road would have been laughable just three weeks ago. However, they have turned it around massively since being embarrassed by the Dolphins. Three straight victories in which they have scored 34 points in each game have completely changed the outlook of this team. In contrast the Cincinnati Bengals have scored a maximum of just 17 points, and just 60 points in total across their past five games. Andy Dalton is back for the Bengals, but the way this Jets offense is rolling he is going to need to be incredible if the Bengals are to get anything out of this.
Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants | 1:00 pm EST
2u – Green Bay Packers -6 @ -110
- Per statschecker, the New York Giants are 1-4 ATS at home this season
- Per statschecker, the Green Bay Packers are 7-4 ATS this season
This game should offer the Packers with the perfect opportunity to bounce back this week. The Giants have allowed 30 points in three of their last four games. The Packers offense has not been overly convincing this season, but it was not that long ago they took the Raiders and Chiefs defenses for a combined 73 points. The Giants defense is worse than either of those two units and we should see Green Bay get close to 30 points again this week. Can the Giants get to 25? They absolutely can, as they have twice in the last five, but I do think they are going to? Not really. The Packers defense has issues, but they should be able to handle this Giants offense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 1:00 pm EST
2u – Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 @ -102
- The Buccaneers have scored over 30 points in three of the last four weeks
- The Jaguars have allowed an average of 33.67 points per game the last three weeks
Two units on the Buccaneers and the Jets in the same article?! We are now officially down the rabbit hole my friends. This one is simple to me. The Buccaneers are the better team. They are more explosive on offense and their defense can make enough plays, as we saw last weekend against the Falcons. The Jaguars offense has averaged just 16.5 points per game since Nick Foles returned, and while I see them getting to 20 this season, I cannot see them matching this Buccaneers team. The added element here is the neutralization of the Jaguars home field advantage. The Buccaneers are used to the Florida weather and only have a short travel for this game.
San Francisco 49ers @ Baltimore Ravens | 4:25 pm EST
1u – Baltimore Ravens -5.5 @ -110
- Per statschecker, the Baltimore Ravens are 6-4-1 ATS this season, and 5-0 ATS in the last five
- The Baltimore Ravens are averaging 40.4 points per game in their last five games
I am not going to mince my words here. Essentially until someone slows this Ravens offense down, or they are favorites by more than a touchdown then I will keep picking them. The Ravens have scored 40 or more points in the last three, and 30 or more in the last five games. Meanwhile, their defense has allowed a total of 62 points in those last five games. The 49ers may well come in here and play it close, but the eye-test right now tells me that the Ravens are a juggernaut right now.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Tennessee Titans +2.5 @ +100
- The Titans have won four of their last five, covering the spread in those four victories
- The Colts have lost three of their last four games
This game comes to injuries for me. The Colts are really struggling to keep players healthy, and on the field, and it has blunted them on the outside. They have no reason downfield threat outside of TY Hilton, and now they have lost their main red-zone threat in Eric Ebron. In contrast the Titans are rolling right now, with their offense feeding off Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. I think the Titans are coming out of this with the win, and therefore, I will take the points happily in this spot.