Week 15 is a massive week in the NFL. We have multiple clinching scenarios around the league, but also still plenty of situations up in the air. It can get tough at this time of the year, with injuries and differing motivations starting to come into play. These elements can make things both easier and more difficult, but only if you can identify the right spots to exploit. Let’s take a look at the picks for Sunday of Week 15.
Here are this week’s NFL Picks:
Bet of the Week:
Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals | 4:05 pm EST
2u – Cleveland Browns -3 @ +105
- The Arizona Cardinals have lost their last six and are 2-4 ATS in that time
- The Cardinals have lost their last three games by 10, 27 and 6 points
Picking the Browns under Kitchens has me concerned, but the Cardinals are in free fall right now. They have lost their last six, with three of those losses coming by double digits. All of my metrics have the Cleveland Browns 5-to-6 points better than the Cardinals. We saw the Browns beat the Bengals by eight points last week, and they should be too talented for the Cardinals this weekend as well.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Denver Broncos +10 @ -110
- Per Statschecker, the Denver Broncos are 8-5 ATS this season
- The Kansas City Chiefs are 3-3 at home this season, and have only won one home game by double-digits
A weird scheduling quirk has meant that the Broncos play the team that just beat the Patriots for the second time in two weeks. Last week they caught a Texans team that was experiencing a come down moment and beat them handily. This week will be tougher, because the Chiefs will be on their guard after seeing what happened to the Texans. However, the Broncos are playing well right now and with Patrick Mahomes struggling with an injury at times last week 10 points just feels too much.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions | 1:00 pm EST
2u – Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 @ -110
- The Lions have lost nine of their last 10 with seven of those by four points or more
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won four of their last five, scoring 28 or more points in all four victories
This game comes to motivation for me. The Lions are in free-fall and really have nothing to get up for in this game. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are still evaluating Jameis Winston, and will be desperate to show that they are a competitive team that was robbed by their horrific schedule. Yes, Mike Evans will be missing in this one, but the Lions pass defense is hardly good enough for them to be able to shut down Chris Godwin. The Buccaneers also have other weapons behind Godwin and I feel like they should get close to 30-points again this week. However, realistically they only need to get to around 25, as I cannot see the Lions putting up more than 20 with David Blough in control of this offense.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins | 1:00 pm EST
1u – Philadelphia Eagles -4 @ -129
- The Washington Redskins have lost eight games this season by nine points or more
- All six of the Eagles wins this season have been by at least five points
Monday Night Football was really ugly for the Eagles but laying four points to Dwayne Haskins is not enough. The Eagles seemed to work out how to make their offense click late in that game against the Giants, and I expect them to use similar concepts in this one. The Redskins have been playing teams tough recently, but with the motivation being much higher for the Eagles I think they win this one by a touchdown at least.
Buffalo Bills @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 8:20 pm EST
2u – Buffalo Bills +2 @ -110
- Per Statschecker, the Buffalo Bills are 8-4-1 ATS and 5-0-1 ATS on the road
- The Pittsburgh Steelers rank 30th in yards per game, 31st in passing yards per game and 24th in rushing yards per game
Yes, the Bills have only beaten one team with a winning record, but they are still the better team in this one. All of my metrics have the Bills by three-point favorites, yet they are two-point underdogs in this one. Even if you give the Steelers a home-field boost this game should be a pick at best. The Bills defense should be able to shut down the Steelers offense, and I trust this Bills offense to be able to get close enough to 20 to be able to win this game.
By Ben Rolfe