Statschecker: Chiefs At Bears: 5 Things To Consider

Statschecker highlights five important factors to consider before placing your bets on Sunday Night Football
Rucker Haringey
Sun, December 22, 10:00 AM EST

Heading into the season, the idea of pitting the Chiefs and Bears against one another on Sunday Night Football looked like a potential ratings bonanza for TV executives. Unfortunately, the game has lots some of its luster. Kansas City still desperately needs to win to keep their home field hopes alive, but the Bears aren’t going anywhere with a record of 7-7.

That doesn’t mean it’s not an intriguing game to watch. Chiefly, you want to see if Patrick Mahomes is ready to get hot and lead this team on a deep playoff run. From the Chicago perspective, you’d like to see if Mitchell Trubisky looks like a quarterback you can build around. News flash, he’s not.

Trubisky’s inefficient play is a big reason why the Bears are installed as six-point underdogs at home. That number isn’t going to scare anyone who believes in the Chiefs offense. Six points to an Andy Reid team is a lot like three points to the rest of the NFL.

Before you lock in your final wagers on Sunday Night Football, you need to swing by our exclusive Statschecker Site on the game. You can find all of the information you need to make an informed bet right in one place. This piece gives you five useful learnings, but dive into the site to extract the maximum amount of information available.

  1. The Chiefs are hot on the cover

Kansas City is starting to beat the odds at the right time of year. The Chiefs have actually covered the spread four times in a row. That’s bad news for Chicago fans looking to back the home team on Sunday night.

The blueprint for Chiefs domination is simple. They want to score early with their explosive offense and then force you to play catch up. When that happens, they can rush the passer and try to suffocate your quarterback. To put it bluntly, that’s a really effective game plan against Trubisky and the Bears if the Chiefs can pull it off.

  1. The Bears suck against the spread

Calling Chicago one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season is perfectly justifiable. If nothing else, their horrible mark of 4-10 against the spread illustrates just how much they’ve underperformed expectations.

For the record, that mark ranks 32nd in the NFL. No one has been worse against the number that Matt Nagy’s team this season. Chalk up another point that leans towards taking the Chiefs to cover.

  1. The Chiefs may be better on the road than at home

Casual NFL fans could easily assume that Kansas City’s record of 10-4 is buoyed by big performances in front of the passionate fans at Arrowhead. That actually isn’t true this season. The Chiefs are only 4-3 at home which pales in comparison to their 6-1 mark on the road.

Some schedule quality imbalance is partly to blame for that gap, but it doesn’t change the fact that Kansas City has played some of its best football on the road this year. The Chicago crowd might be hot on Sunday night, but it’s not going to intimidate Mahomes and company.

  1. 18.3 is not a good number for Chicago

Nagy might be one of the best offensive tacticians in football, but he hasn’t been able to produce high-quality results on the field for his offense in 2019. Chicago comes into this game averaging only 18.3 points per contest.

Quarterback play is responsible for a lot of that mediocrity, but Nagy hasn’t been able to scheme his way out of his team’s struggles. The Bears have a habit of starting out hot due to his excellent play scripts, but their offense fizzles as the game goes along. That might lead you to bet the Bears in a first quarter only wager.

  1. The Chiefs defense is a problem….for Kansas City

There’s no way around acknowledging the Chiefs’ defense as their franchise’s weakness this season. This team can score points in bunches, but they can give them up in the same fashion.

Giving up 20.3 points per contest is not what Super Bowl contenders are generally made of on defense. Chicago will like their chances to make big plays in this game. Their only route to a win is by taking advantage of Kansas City’s suspect secondary.

Keep it simple and take the Chiefs

Almost all of the numbers and trends point Kansas City’s way in this one. Don’t get cute and expect Chicago to rally the troops for one last glorious stand at home. The Chiefs possess superior talent and a lot more motivation to win the game. It might stay close for a while, but Kansas City’s penchant for big plays will earn them a reasonably comfortable win when all is said and done.

Rucker Haringey
RuckerHaringey
Sports journalist with an eye for the statistical side of betting. If there's an edge in the numbers, Rucker will find it
Feb 2020
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