NFL Conference Championship Games: Picks, Predictions & Statistics
The penultimate weekend of NFL action is here (no the Pro Bowl does not count), and with it comes the excitement of Championship weekend and the disappointment of another season nearly in the books. After some shocks in the past two weeks, will we see more this week, or will we see the action settle down? One thing is for sure, with the winners of these two games going to the Super Bowl, no one is going to be an easy out this weekend.
Here are this week’s NFL Picks:
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs | 3:05 pm EST
1u – Tennessee Titans +7.5 @ -110
- Per Statschecker, the Tennessee Titans are 7-3 ATS on the road.
- The Titans have overcome 5- and 9.5-point spreads in the last two weeks
We have seen the recipe for beating this Chiefs team this season. Control the clock, run the ball well and rush the passer effectively. The Titans should be able to do two out of those three things effectively and I can see them pushing the Chiefs all the way to breaking point. The key is the Titans fifth ranked rushing offense by DVOA versus the 29th ranked Chiefs rushing defense. If the Chiefs cannot stop the Titans running the ball, I struggle to see how they can get more than a touchdown ahead of them.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers | 6:40 pm EST
1u – San Francisco 49ers -7.5 @ +100
- The 49ers defense ranked second in DVOA, compared to 15th for the Packers
- The Packers weakness has been there run defense, which has been a strength of the 49ers down the stretch
Last week the stats were too close to call in the 49ers game and I chose the Vikings, which was the wrong side. This week the numbers are in the favor of the 49ers winning and winning with ease. Writing off Aaron Rodgers is never a smart thing to do, but the 49ers are the more complete team on both sides of the ball. The Packers offensive line might be the best in the league, but we have already seen them shredded by the 49ers pass rush once this season. The 49ers are going to neutralise Aaron Jones early, and then come after Rodgers hard.
1u – Under 45.5 Total Points @ -110
- Per Statschecker, the under is 7-10 in Packers games this season
- The Chiefs got Dee Ford back last week and it reinvigorated the defensive line
The highest I see this game going is in the region of 23-20, which would still see the under hit. My belief is that the Packers defense can hold the 49ers defense, while their own offense is dominated by the 49ers defensive line. The way the 49ers played last week sets the blueprint for this week, and Richard Sherman is not going to allow Davante Adams to dominate the game the way he did last week against the Seahawks.
By Ben Rolfe