NFL Picks Against The Spread: Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Predictions
- The Chiefs have scored over 30 points or more in their last five games
- The Chiefs scored 34 points last week despite averaging just 5.5 yards per play
There is no denying the Chargers have a very good defense, but in this matchup, even that might not be enough. The Chiefs are one of the most dominant offenses we have seen in the past decade. What makes them so dangerous is that even when they are not on top form, they can still post a devastating amount of points. Last week they ranked 16th in the league in yards per play (5.5) and still managed to be just one of seven teams to score over 30 points.
The other issue here for the Chargers defense is that their offense just cannot sustain drives. Last week they were 6-for-16 on third down and 0-for-2 on fourth down attempts. To put that in context, the Chiefs were 7-for-13 on third down and 1-for-1 on fourth down. That meant the Chargers offense averaged just 2.19 minutes per drive, the seventh lowest time of any team. The Chargers defense need the offense to win the time of possession battle in this game, or the Chiefs will wear them down and pick them apart.
The Chiefs could lose the time of possession battle 33-27 and still score 30 points with their quick strike offense. If the Chargers let them have as much as 30 minutes on the field, then this could get embarrassing quickly.
- The Chiefs covered a -9.5-point spread in Week 1 against the Houston Texans
- The Chiefs covered an incredible 73.7% of the time in 2019 (14-5), while the Chargers managed it just 25% of the time (4-10-2)
This is a huge mismatch in talent especially on the offensive side of the ball. It is close to impossible to stop the Chiefs scoring more than 25 points meaning that the Chargers need to get to 17 at least to be in this contest. Given what we saw last week against a mediocre Bengals defense, the Chargers will struggle to get over 20 points in Week 2. Take the Chiefs to win this going away with my comfort level extending anywhere up to -10.
NFL Expert Picks
2u – Kansas City Chiefs over 29.5 points @ -120
1u – Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 @ -120
NFL Free Picks
Last week Ben welcomed back the NFL season with a profit. He went 3-2 on his 5 picks for last weekend which gave anybody who followed his bets a 14.7% return on invest. This week Ben has picks for 3 big games on the Sunday, that's in addition to picks from other handicappers including Ben Gretch and Davis Mattek.