- The Chiefs have traditionally been slow starters against the Patriots
- The Chiefs managed just six points in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have a similar level defense to the Patriots
Finding numbers to support this is somewhat tough because largely this comes down to the fact that Bill Belichick is going to have some plans up his sleeve to try and combat the Chiefs early. He successfully slowed them down in the 2018 AFC Championship Game in the first half and has had success against them in other games as well. Equally he will have taken note of the way the Chargers played the Chiefs receivers physically at the line of scrimmage in Week 2.
Combine that with the Patriots being likely to use a heavy dose of the run in the first half to try and keep the ball away from the Chiefs offense and this has the makings of a very frustrating game for Kansas City. I do expect this game to open up more in the third quarter when the Chiefs make their adjustments and the Patriots defense starts to tire, but this should be a tight first half, because that is the only chance the Patriots have to win this matchup.
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Some bonus bets to look out for:
There are currently no numbers on prop bets this early in the week but look out for Tyreek Hill to score multiple touchdowns. His speed burned the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game and he is always targeted heavily on account of Stephon Gilmore tending to cover other receivers where his size is more beneficial.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire anytime touchdown. The Patriots linebacker group is basically non-existent following the opt-outs for 2020. The Patriots gave up a receiving touchdown to Chris Carson in Week 2 and I expect the Chiefs to exploit the Patriots linebackers on running back routes out of the backfield.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Kansas City Chiefs under 14.5 first half points @ -120
NFL Free Picks
We enter the fourth week of the NFL season with a blockbuster week featuring some enticing games. OddsChecker's crack team of handicappers, Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek and Ben Rolfe will be covering the very best games, including all of the primetime games.