- The Cowboys have covered the spread in each of their last 6 games against the Giants
This NFC East clash is one of the most interesting games of the weekend. Through four weeks of the NFL season we are no clearer in knowing whether the Dallas Cowboys are actually good or not. Dak Prescott is putting up incredible numbers but surely it can't last?
So far Dak has put up an incredible 1,602 yards and 9 touchdowns, adding a further three with his feet. He's on course for 6,400 if you extrapolate those numbers across the regular season. That would be nearly 1,000 yards above Peyton Manning's 2013 season, the current record holder for passing yards in a season. As impressive as Dak has been so far this season, that simply won't happen. So we will see some regression.
Does that mean the Giants will win? Well no, the Giants are woeful. As bad as the Cowboys' defense is, and they've allowed 138 points so far this season, the Giants won't be able to take advantage.
The Giants offense is impotent, especially without Saquon Barkley, and they've only managed 47 points through the season, not much more than the Cowboys have allowed, on average, per game, in 34.5. The Giants will score one or two touchdowns against this leaky defense, but not enough to cover the spread.
Any line over a score is always a risk, but I'm comfortable in this case. Although I expect the Cowboys to cover here, I think it's unlikely we'll see the two teams exceed the total points line. The fourth highest line of the weekend should be reserved for two gunslinging teams, and the Giants are simply not that. They're the lowest scorers in football and even their city rivals, with Braxton Berrios as their top receiving threat, have scored almost 50% more points.
That said, there is one positive for the Giants and that is Darius Slayton, last year's fifth round pick hasn't hit the heights of last year's campaign yet but he has faced 4 of the top 12 passing defenses so far this season. He's also tied second for red zone targets this season, on 11 with Odell Beckham Jr and 3 behind Calvin Ridley. The positive regression will happen for Slayton and the Cowboys will give him every opportunity.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Dallas Cowboys -8 @ -107
1u - Under 54.0 total points @ -108
1u – Darius Slayton to score a touchdown @ +170
NFL Free Picks
There's a host of exciting games on the Week 5 slate this Sunday, although the NFL world is set for more potential postponements in light of recent positive Covid-19 tests. The week will end with Justin Herbert given a primetime game to showcase his talents as the Chargers face Drew Brees' Saints in New Orleans. OddsChecker's crack team of Ben Gretch, Ben Rolfe and Davis Mattek are here to give you the best free picks for the games.