- The Buffalo Bills are 3-1 against the spread this season and the Titans are one of three teams that have yet to cover (0-3)
It’s a little tough to handicap a Titans game right now, seeing as when they take the field Tuesday night it’ll be the first time in 16 days that they’ve played a game. Still, the Bills have been one of the best teams in football this season, both outright and against the spread.
For the last few years, the Bills have had a great defense and have won games by keeping the other team off the board and scoring timely touchdowns. This season, they’re giving up points at a much larger clip than they have in the past, but the offense has been rolling.
2020 has brought on the emergence of quarterback Josh Allen. In four games this season he’s thrown for 1,326 yards, 12 touchdowns and just one interception. Not to mention that his 88.0 QBR is good for 2nd in the NFL, and he’s completing 70.9% of his passes.
The arm talent has always been there for Allen, but the question of whether or not he could cut down on the mistakes remained until this year.
Another reason Allen was able to take the next step this season is the arrival of Stefon Diggs. Diggs gives Allen a true No. 1 receiver, and allows his QB to take some risks forcing him the ball in tight windows.
The Bills come into Week 5 at 5th in the NFL in offensive DVOA and 10th overall, confirming their 4-0 record as one of the league's better teams.
So what can we expect from Tennessee this week?
From a health standpoint, both A.J. Brown and Taylor Lewan are questionable. If they suit up, that gives the Titans their rock on the left side of the line and their best wide receiver. If they can’t go, it could be a long night for Tennessee.
Expect a massive dose of Derrick Henry, as is always the case in Tennessee. Henry has carried the ball 82 times in just three games, and it’s basically a certainty that he’ll put up 25+ carries tonight, but the Bills come in with the 8th best rush defense in football. If the Titans expect to keep up with the high-powered Bills offense, they’re going to need to put up points.
Coming off an extended time away from live action and facing a solid rush defense, I just don’t see the Titans being able to score often enough to cover the 3 points.
NFL Expert Picks
Bills -3 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
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