- The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-1 against the spread as favorites this season
- The Cleveland Browns were blown out 38-6 by the best opponent they have faced this season
The AFC North is shaping up to be a superb dogfight between three very good teams. Both of these teams have had mixed schedules so far, with the Steelers winning their biggest test (against the Houston Texans), whole the Browns were blown out in theirs (Baltimore Ravens).
Defensively, the Steelers have played with a somewhat bend-but-don’t-break mentality, ranking 28th in third down conversions but 10th in red-zone conversions. They have allowed scores on just 31.8% of drives and allow a seventh-best 1.95 points per drive. They also rank eighth in turnovers and second in interceptions. Their second-best run defense should also neutralize the strength of the Browns offense and force the game into Baker Mayfield’s hands.
Conversely, the Browns defense allows scores on 44.4% of drives and an average of 2.59 points per drive (23rd). They also rank outside the top-20 in both third down conversions allowed and red-zone conversion percentage. Where the Browns strength has been defensively is forcing turnovers, leading the league with 12. However, the Steelers have committed just four turnovers this season, and if the Browns defense cannot turn the ball over, the Steelers should be able to put up enough points to win this going away against a banged up Browns defense.
From a totals point of view, 51 seems too high for a game with the strength of the Steelers. However, with overs hitting at a historic rate this season I am now programmed to avoid taking the under. Therefore, I would look to tease this total either down to 45 (and take the over) or up to 57 (and take the under) and combine it with the Browns +9.5 in a single game parlay for odds of around -110 to -120. I would rather just play the Steelers ATS, but if you do not have a comfort level with them winning by four or more then a teaser may well be the way to play this game.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
Week 6 is here after a wild week 5. Week 5 saw Covid postponements, harrowing injuries and unreal rookie performances too. We'll see an NFC West clash between the Niners and Rams on Sunday Night Football, and two of the finest young minds in the game. Monday Night Football will see the Cowboys in their first post-Dak game and it'll be fascinating to see how they bounce back after that horrific injury. Stick with OddsChecker and you'll get free picks for every NFL game this week, from Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Ben Rolfe and more. Plus you'll be able to compare the best odds from legal sportsbooks too.