- The Chicago Bears are 3-1 against the spread as underdogs in 2020
- The Panthers rank 27th in red-zone conversions offensively, while the Bears rank first defensively
This is a fascinating matchup between two surprising teams this season. However, the matchup for the Panthers brings a lot of concerns. The Panthers defense has struggled at times this season, allowing over 50% of third down conversions (30th) and a red-zone conversion percentage of 66.7, placing them 23rd in the league. Those struggles match the Bears concerns of converting just 33.3% of their third downs offensively and scoring a touchdown on just 53.3% of their red-zone opportunities.
On the other side we have a strength on strength matchup, as the Bears defense ranks second and first in third down and red-zone conversions respectively. The Panthers offense is the sixth-best on third downs but the 27th best at turning red-zone opportunities into touchdowns. That is where my concern lies for the Panthers. If they can match their Week 4 output of 30 points there is no way the Bears can beat them. However, if they only score around 20 points, then the Bears offense has a chance to do enough to win this game.
The Panthers defense appears to have taken advantage of a soft schedule of opponents offensively. That trend continues this week, but the difference now is they face one of the best defenses in the league. The Panthers offense has been extremely smart this season, but I struggle to see them getting past 25 points. Meanwhile, the Bears offense faces its easiest matchup since they put up 30 on the Falcons in Week 3.
This is a game I can see the Bears offense finding its rhythm with Nick Foles, and the Bears either winning or keeping it extremely close. If you can find the Bears +3 or +3.5 at odds of -115 or below then that is where I am looking in this matchup.
The Panthers have restricted two of their last three opponents to under 20 points. However, both of those offenses were hamstrung by significant injuries to their offense. Meanwhile the Bears have taken advantage when facing middling defenses, taking the Lions and Falcons for more than 20 points this season.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Chicago Bears +3 @ +105
1u - Chicago Bears over 20.5 points @ -112
NFL Free Picks
Week 6 is here after a wild week 5. Week 5 saw Covid postponements, harrowing injuries and unreal rookie performances too. We'll see an NFC West clash between the Niners and Rams on Sunday Night Football, and two of the finest young minds in the game. Monday Night Football will see the Cowboys in their first post-Dak game and it'll be fascinating to see how they bounce back after that horrific injury. Stick with OddsChecker and you'll get free picks for every NFL game this week, from Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Ben Rolfe and more. Plus you'll be able to compare the best odds from legal sportsbooks too.