- Indianapolis’ three wins have come over teams with a combined record of 5-10
- Cincinnati is 3-2 against the spread this season
Tough to feel great betting on either of these teams right now. On the one hand, Cincinnati is 1-3-1 overall and coming off their most lopsided loss of the season, a 27-3 thumping at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens.
On the other hand, the Colts are 3-2 but coming off a game where they fell behind 20-10 at half to the Browns before losing by nine.
Indy’s defense has been one of the best in football this season, but the offense has struggled. Last week, they scored one offensive touchdown, and Phillip Rivers continues to look like a shell of his former self.
Through five games, he’s 16th in the NFL in passing yards (1,227), tied for 27th in passing TDs (4) and INTs (5) and 22nd in the league in QBR at 59.3.
This isn’t to say I don’t think the Colts will win this week. I think they’ll settle in with a fairly comfortable 4-6 point victory, but the Bengals are getting 7.5 points and I think they can score just enough to keep up with an underperforming Colts offense.
If you can put last week’s terrible performance against one of the NFL’s best teams behind you, the Bengals have competed in every other game this season. A let down in Week 1 against the Chargers was followed by a tough-fought loss to the Browns in Week 2. They tied the Eagles the next week before dominating a bad Jacksonville team in Week 4.
Joe Burrow will be looking to rebound from the worst performance of his young career, and I think he’ll be able to keep it close and minimize mistakes against a defense that will looking for chances to take the ball away.
I try not to take teams with underperforming offenses that are favored by more than a touchdown. The Colts are middle of the pack (17th) in total points scored per game, but are 29th in the NFL in offensive points scored per game and are still yet to score more than two offensive TDs in a game.
If Burrow and the rest of the Bengals can keep the turnovers down, I like the Colts to win a low-scoring game at home. With the total currently at 46.5 (+100) I like both the Bengals to cover and the under.
NFL Expert Picks
Bengals +7.5 @ -106
Under 46.5 @ +100
NFL Free Picks
Week 6 is here after a wild week 5. Week 5 saw Covid postponements, harrowing injuries and unreal rookie performances too. We'll see an NFC West clash between the Niners and Rams on Sunday Night Football, and two of the finest young minds in the game. Monday Night Football will see the Cowboys in their first post-Dak game and it'll be fascinating to see how they bounce back after that horrific injury. Stick with OddsChecker and you'll get free picks for every NFL game this week, from Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Ben Rolfe and more. Plus you'll be able to compare the best odds from legal sportsbooks too.