- In situations where teams lead by 7 or more points, Baltimore has played at the league’s seventh-quickest pace in terms of time to snap.
- Philadelphia has played at the league’s seventh-quickest pace when trailing by 7 or more points.
Baltimore heads to Philadelphia with a 4-1 record that somehow feels disappointing. Their offense hasn’t quite been clicking the same way it did in 2019, and they were flat in all phases in their biggest matchup in the early part of the season, losing at home to Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
After a huge 2019, Baltimore’s offense hasn’t been just slightly less efficient — they’ve been one of the least efficient units in the league in terms of success rate. But their defense has been stifling, holding opponents to under 20 points in all four wins. Some of their offensive struggles can be explained by a desire to throw more early in 2020, and it’s clear Baltimore is trying to be a more balanced attack that can play from behind. But they’ve also been less efficient as a rushing offense, and I don’t expect the lack of offensive production will continue all season.
I’m expecting a breakout offensive performance to come at any time, and Week 6 is a great spot. The Eagles defense is banged up, and particularly vulnerable in the secondary so we could see better passing numbers from Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s season high in offensive yardage this year is just 407 — that’s a number they eclipsed nine times last year, including their playoff loss, and it’s a number I’m expecting them to eclipse this week.
Betting markets seem to agree, as the Ravens are 9.5-point road favorites. And if Baltimore does get out to an early lead, that should mean a faster-paced game than we might typically expect. While the Ravens are among the slowest-paced teams in the league overall, they don’t slow things down as much as other offenses when they get ahead. With a lead of at least 7 points, they are the seventh-fastest offense in the league by average time to snap.
And Philadelphia’s offense is one of the quickest in the league when trailing. When they have been behind by at least 7 points, the Eagles have played at the seventh-fastest pace. Philadelphia continues to struggle with injuries on both sides of the ball, but we know they’ll play quick and aggressive if they fall behind early, and they should be able to put together some points at home.
I expect Baltimore to win this game, and perhaps easily, so I’m not touching the spread. But the 46.5-point total is low for 2020’s high-scoring environment, and I'm expecting Baltimore's offense to be productive throughout and for that game environment to mean plenty of tempo and scoring late. If Philadelphia does surprise and keep things close or get out to a lead themselves, close games tend to produce more points anyway, and this would still figure to be a high-scoring affair. The over’s the play here.
NFL Expert Picks
Over 46.5 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
Week 6 is here after a wild week 5. Week 5 saw Covid postponements, harrowing injuries and unreal rookie performances too. We'll see an NFC West clash between the Niners and Rams on Sunday Night Football, and two of the finest young minds in the game. Monday Night Football will see the Cowboys in their first post-Dak game and it'll be fascinating to see how they bounce back after that horrific injury. Stick with OddsChecker and you'll get free picks for every NFL game this week, from Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Ben Rolfe and more. Plus you'll be able to compare the best odds from legal sportsbooks too.