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Ben Gretch is back with his picks for Monday's Bills vs. Chiefs game

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Kansas City has the No. 1 pass offense by DVOA, while Buffalo ranks No. 4. Both teams are in the top three in total passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Monday night brings us a fascinating game between two of the more potent offenses in the league. One big storyline is the Bills playing on a short week after a contest last Tuesday night. They’ll have six days of rest by Monday, but Kansas City will be much more rested and presumably prepared.

That said, the Bills came out flat against Tennessee last week, and some have speculated that may have been related to their uncertain schedule. If that game had been canceled, Buffalo would have been playing this matchup with the Chiefs last Thursday. That meant the Bills were likely preparing for two potential opponents during the previous week. As the Bills look to rebound here, it’s possible they’ve been looking ahead to this high-powered matchup for much longer than a week.

Prior to Week 5, Josh Allen had been playing lights out, generating MVP buzz as he and new No. 1 WR Stefon Diggs have gelled perfectly. Despite Allen having a bit of a down game last week, Buffalo still ranks in the top five by most passing metrics. But they do a pretty stiff test this week, as Kansas City has been surprisingly strong against the pass so far in 2020.

On the other side, the typically strong Bills defense has been getting carved up by opposing pass offenses, though they will likely get Tre’Davious White back after he missed Week 5. One concern for the Chiefs is Patrick Mahomes’ downfield passing, which has been underwhelming by his lofty standards as defenses have been trying to force Kansas City into a dink-and-dunk offense. While Mahomes has posted solid passing numbers overall, so far this year he’s completed just six of 24 passes that have traveled at least 20 air yards, a 25% completion rate that is well off his 53% (39 of 73) on such passes in 2019 and 45% (48 of 106) in 2018.

The Chiefs have the firepower to put up a big number on this struggling pass defense, but I do like Clyde Edwards-Helaire to have a big game on the ground after the much-discussed Le’Veon Bell signing this past week. And if Kansas City’s pass defense can limit Allen’s playmaking ability somewhat, this extremely high 57 game total will be tough to hit.

Buffalo has played fairly slow when behind, ranking 28th in pace in situations where they have trailed by 7 or more points. I like the Chiefs to cover the big road spread, and I think they’ll do it in a game with plenty of points but that nonetheless goes under this big total.

NFL Expert Picks

Chiefs -5 @ -105

Under 57 @ -110

NFL Free Picks

Week 6 is here after a wild week 5. Week 5 saw Covid postponements, harrowing injuries and unreal rookie performances too. We'll see an NFC West clash between the Niners and Rams on Sunday Night Football, and two of the finest young minds in the game. Monday Night Football will see the Cowboys in their first post-Dak game and it'll be fascinating to see how they bounce back after that horrific injury. Stick with OddsChecker and you'll get free picks for every NFL game this week, from Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Ben Rolfe and more. Plus you'll be able to compare the best odds from legal sportsbooks too.

Article Author


Ben knows his football. A fantasy football expert who was most recently seen at CBS Sports, he'll be helping bettors find value ahead in the NFL with OddsChecker.


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