- Both teams are 3-3 ATS this season
- Each team has gone under the total three times and over the total three times in 2020
This game is a tough one to find much of a feel for, as both teams have been inconsistent early in the 2020 NFL season. Are we going to get the Lions team that lost by 21 to Green Bay? Or will we see the team that beat the Cardinals in Week 3? The Colts’ defense has been great, but will the offense ever catch up?
To start, I think the Lions are exactly what they’ve shown us this season: A middle-of-the-pack team. I am probably higher on Matthew Stafford than most, I think he’s one of the most underrated QBs in football, but I don’t trust the team’s coaching/preparation, because Matt Patricia has been largely a failure.
Detroit is 18th in offensive DVOA and 18th in defensive DVOA. Their 2.5% total DVOA is good for 15th in the NFL, suggesting they’re just a slightly above-average team through seven weeks.
The emergence of D’Andre Swift gives them another weapon to go along with Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, but the Colts’ defense has been notoriously difficult to score against in 2020.
Through 7 weeks of play, the Colts are fourth in the NFL in defensive DVOA, behind Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Colts’ opponents are scoring 19.2 points per game, good for fourth in the league, and outside of a slow start last week against the Bengals, they look to be one of the strongest units in the league.
The Colts and Lions are both 3-3 ATS so far in 2020, but I’m sticking with the strong defense in this one rather than the up-and-down offensive unit of Detroit.
At -3, I think the Colts shut down the Lions on the road, like they have almost all their opponents. I also like the under 50.5 as Indianapolis struggles to score points in bunches.
NFL Expert Picks
Colts -3 @ +100
Under 50.5 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
Week 8 is here and we've got some great games in store. The Cowboys visit Philadelphia to face the Eagles on Sunday Night Football and the Bucs end the week by facing the Giants in New York on Monday Night Football. Elsewhere we'll see Tua Tagovailoa's first game as Miami Dolphin's starter, and the Steelers facing the Ravens in a huge test of both team's Super Bowl credentials. The Cardinals, Texans, Jaguars and the Football Team are all on a bye this week.
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