- The Ravens' defense ranks 5th in the NFL in DVOA
These are two of the better defenses in the NFL. Baltimore’s defense has been a top unit all year long, coming into Week 9 ranking 5th in the league in defensive DVOA. Indianapolis is also one of the NFL’s best defensive teams, coming in at 3rd in defensive DVOA.
Week after week, these defenses have showed up, but their offenses have been another story.
The Colts have gotten inconsistent play from quarterback Philip Rivers. He’s managed to keep the turnovers down, but he’s only thrown for 10 passing touchdowns and is 18th in the NFL in QBR at 65.5.
Last week, the Colts’ offense ran up the score, putting up 41 points in a 20-point win over Detroit, but that’s more likely a one-time thing than the new norm.
Baltimore, like Indianapolis, has struggled offensively some this season, specifically in the passing game.
Fresh off his MVP season in 2019, Lamar Jackson seems to have taken a step back as a passer in 2020. He’s completing just 60.5% of his passes, averaging just over 190 yards passing per game and has a 63.8 QBR, good for 19th among quarterbacks.
We’re featuring two good defenses and two offenses that have struggled at times throughout the season. The total right now sits at 46.5, and I’m taking the under, but I’m also going to go with the Ravens -2.5 (+100).
I like the under for all the reason’s I previously mentioned, but I like the Ravens because I believe more in Lamar Jackson’s ability to make something happen than I do in Philip Rivers’ ability to do the same.
Even if the passing game isn’t working for Jackson, he has other ways he can beat the Colts. I think the Ravens’ defense will lead them to a win at something like 24-17 or 24-20.
NFL Expert Picks
Under 46.5 @ -103
Ravens -2.5 @ +100
NFL Free Picks
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