- Kansas City is 6-2 ATS this season
It’s gotten to the point where, no matter the spread, I feel comfortable laying the points with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Last week, they came in as massive 19.5-point favorites against the Jets and they covered that huge spread with relative ease.
This week, they have a better opponent coming up in the Carolina Panthers, but the Chiefs have looked so much better than every team they’ve played, other than a fluke loss to the Raiders.
The Chiefs have the No. 1 offense in the NFL, according to offensive DVOA and about 10 other different offensive-success metrics. They have by far the most talented group of skill players on that side of the ball and, for good measure, they have the best quarterback in the NFL and current face of the league.
Meanwhile, Carolina’s total DVOA comes in at -1.4% through eight weeks of play, making them a slightly below average team. I like some of the tools they have on offense in DJ Moore and Robby Anderson, plus they're getting Christian McCaffrey back this week, but I don’t think they’ll be able to keep up.
The line is currently at 10, which is not great as a 10-point win gets you a push, but I’m going to take the Chiefs still. As of Friday, the best odds you can get on Chiefs -9.5 are -125, which is too much juice for my taste, but I’ll be monitoring the spread to see if I can get it at -9.5 at odds close to -110 as the weekend rolls on.
I expect a somewhat close game early on before the Chiefs pull away in the 2nd quarter and beyond to a 14+ point win.
NFL Expert Picks
Chiefs -10 @ -110
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