- The Rams offense ranks third in success rate this season. Seattle ranks first.
- Three of the four times these teams met across 2018 and 2019, the game totaled at least 59 points.
At this point in the season, we can have team tendencies that are still evolving as injuries and personnel changes shape the team’s season, or we can pretty much know what a team is. The Seahawks fall into this latter group as perhaps the most predictable team in football right now.
Seattle is passing with intent on early downs, and their secondary can’t stop anyone. Russell Wilson has had a couple of bad games dictated mostly by racking up at least three turnovers in each, and those were the Seahawks’ two losses. His bad games haven’t typically been visible in his raw passing numbers, and he averages 318 passing yards and 3.5 passing touchdowns per game through the season’s first half.
The Rams show up as solid against the pass by any metric, though their numbers are skewed a bit by strength of opponent. They stifled the passing attacks of Washington and the Giants earlier this season, while the Dolphins threw for fewer than 100 net yards against Los Angeles in Tua Tagovailoa’s first start as Miami coasted to a win thanks to two first-half return touchdowns. They were solid against Dallas in Week 1 and Buffalo in Week 3, though both offenses totaled over 370 yards. Their other matchups were with the Eagles, 49ers, and Bears — it was a soft first half for the Rams.
The Rams did have a week to rest up, and being at home off a bye is certainly a positive in a big divisional matchup. Expect Los Angeles to have little trouble moving the ball against a defense that has given up the most passing yards and total yards per game so far. With the Rams sometimes play deliberately and with a greater rush lean than is probably optimal, their offense has registered the third-highest success rate in the NFL so far this season, giving them a clear advantage here.
Meanwhile, Seattle has the league’s single highest success rate, and while Wilson does have the two high-turnover games, those were his first two multi-interception outings since Week 1 of 2018. Setting aside a few errant throws, Wilson is playing at an extremely high level, and even if the Rams have a solid gameplan against him he’ll need to be aggressive in the second half given the state of Seattle’s defense.
These teams are very familiar with each other, and three of the past four times they’ve met the games have been decided by five points or fewer with totals of at least 59 points. I expect another close game, and close games tend to elevate the total scoring as teams go back and forth down the stretch. The game’s total is a high one, but I’m on the over here.
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We're over the halfway point now as we enter Week 10 of this wild NFL season. The New England Patriots welcome the Baltimore Ravens to town on primetime this Sunday, and the following night we see the Vikings at the Bears. We see some big divisional games this week including the Seahawks and Rams. We also see two young rookies clash as Justin Herbert's Chargers travel to Miami to face Tua and the Dolphins.
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