- Per Statschecker, the Green Bay Packers are 4-1 on the road this season
- Per Statschecker, the Packers are 2-0 on the road as underdogs this season
It has not been a vintage couple of games for the Packers as they struggled to beat the Jaguars, looked solid but not spectacular against the 49ers, and got handled by the Vikings and Dalvin Cook. However, this is a Green Bay team that seems to be capable of finding a way to win. It has taken an extremely talented defense and an incredible ground game to beat them so far this year.
The Packers rank in the top five in points scored, passing touchdowns, net passing yards per attempt, average time of drive, and points per drive. They also, importantly rank in the top five in third-down and red-zone conversion rate. All of those numbers are extremely promising for a team that is getting back to health and has a good chance to have Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, and Aaron Jones all on the field for the first time since Week 3.
The Colts have the formula to beat the Packers on defense. They tank in the top 10 in a number of statistical categories, including points allowed, yards allowed, yards per drive and points per drive. However, their offense is not built to sustain drives against the Packers, with their run game ranking in the bottom five in yards per attempt.
Ironically, if this game was outdoors in Lambeau and open to the conditions, I would like the Colts chances more. Despite the mediocre run game, they have a team built for tight, hard-fought battles. Indoors, in Indianapolis, Rodgers should be able to spread the ball to his targets and win this game reasonably comfortably. I like the Packers both against the spread and straight up.
In terms of the totals, my lean would be to leave the total alone at around 50, as the two teams saw 50 and 51 points scored in their games last week. The Packers total at 23.5 screams to take the over, with Green Bay having topped that in three of their last four and seven of their nine games this season. At around 26 points, the under is my lean for the Colts, who have gone over that number in three of their last four, but have been under it four times in total on the season.
NFL Expert Picks
2u – Green Bay Packers ML @ +128
NFL Free Picks
Week 11 sees us entering the business end of the season. Thursday Night Football is a divisional clash between the Cardinals and Seahawks and two MVP contendeners in Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. With nine teams currently sat on 6-3 records we are likely to see teams begin to seperate themselves from the pack this week. The Titans trip to trip to Baltimore to the Ravens is a big game and one which is sure to feature a lot of rushing, elsewhere on Sunday we'll be keeping an eye on the Saints to see how Jameis Winston does as he steps into Drew Brees' spot because of injury. Sunday Night Football sees the Chiefs face the Raiders, looking for revenge after suffering defeat against Jon Gruden's teams earlier in the season. Monday Night Football rounds off the week as we see the Rams face the Bucs in an intriguing primetime clash.
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