NFL Week 11 Picks: New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Chargers Predictions
- Per Statschecker, the New York Jets are 2-7 ATS in 2020
- The New York Jets rank in the bottom five of the league in most statistical categories
Backing the Chargers with their fragile confidence when it comes to holding leads always leaves me a little uncertain. Only the Atlanta Falcons appear to be more proficient at throwing away leads and what appear to be sure-fire winning positions. However, my confidence comes in the form of the way this team handled the Jacksonville Jaguars in LA back in Week 7, winning by 10 points.
In that game, the Chargers were expected to win by a touchdown, and they did more than that. Numbers-wise the best thing that can be said about the Chargers is that they rank middle of the pack in many statistical categories and have a yards per play differential that is marginally in the positive. That suggests their 2-7 record is a product of bad luck as opposed to complete incompetence.
If confidence in statistics is what you are after, then take it in the form of the Jets, who are mediocre defensively, and downright bad offensively. A microcosm of their play this year can be found in their conversion statistics, as they rank last in both third-down and red-zone conversion rate with numbers of 31% and 27.8%, respectively.
In terms of yards per play, the Jets rank last in the league offensively at a woeful 4.5, while ranking as the seventh-worst defensively at 6.1. Using my points conversion factor, I have the Jets as 8.5-point underdogs. However, when I put those numbers into my predicted totals metric, I have the Chargers as 11-point victors.
Another way to play the Chargers this week would be as 2.5-point favorites in a teaser combined with a number such as the Packers +8.5.
In terms of projected totals, the line of 47 is hard to analyse. If the Jets that could not get out of their own way show up, then that totals seems high because you are looking for LA to score 35+ of those. Therefore, my lean would be to play the Chargers total over at around 27, a number they have beaten in three of their last five, and a number the Jets have allowed to be topped in six of their nine games this season.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 @ -115
NFL Free Picks
Week 11 sees us entering the business end of the season. Thursday Night Football is a divisional clash between the Cardinals and Seahawks and two MVP contendeners in Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. With nine teams currently sat on 6-3 records we are likely to see teams begin to seperate themselves from the pack this week. The Titans trip to trip to Baltimore to the Ravens is a big game and one which is sure to feature a lot of rushing, elsewhere on Sunday we'll be keeping an eye on the Saints to see how Jameis Winston does as he steps into Drew Brees' spot because of injury. Sunday Night Football sees the Chiefs face the Raiders, looking for revenge after suffering defeat against Jon Gruden's teams earlier in the season. Monday Night Football rounds off the week as we see the Rams face the Bucs in an intriguing primetime clash.
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