- Per statschecker, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 7-2 ATS this season
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed the joint second-most sacks in the NFL, while the Steelers have managed the most sacks defensively
This has the feeling of taking last week, rinsing and repeating. In Week 10, the Steelers were facing a team that had been exciting coming in, pushing teams close and threatening an upset. The Steelers then promptly demolished that team, despite looking out of sorts offensively at times.
The key for the Steelers is that their defense can dominate even the best offense, let alone ones that have issues. They rank in the top five in points allowed, takeaways, first downs allowed, average points per drive, and average plays per drive. Having a defense that good, allows your offense to have a good but not incredible day and still rack up 36 points.
The problem for the Jaguars, is they are not that good at anything. They rank in the top 1- in yards per rushing attempt, offensive third-down conversion rate and defensive red-zone conversion rate. Those numbers have an opportunity to produce some strong moments at times, but the lack of offensive consistency across the board is a concern.
The biggest concern I have for the Steelers in this game is the let-down spot. We just saw them struggle to motivate on a non-division game on the road against the Cowboys. With the Ravens on the horizon could the Steelers let this game drift and then wake up late in the second half and pull out a small win? Absolutely, but after it happened two weeks ago, I would expect Mike Tomlin to have been hammering home the point all week.
This is a game to look at as a potential teaser. Take the Steelers down to four-point favorites and pair with either the Chargers -2.5 or the Packers +8.5.
In terms of totals, I struggle with all three lines. The overall total looks spot on given we could see the Steelers smother the Jaguars offense and just shut down their own offense if up 15-20 points in the second half. However, the Jaguars have been frisky the last two weeks and seem intent on playing spoiler to someone.
I cannot see the Steelers having the motivation to pile it on the Jaguars like they would have the Bengals. Do not be surprised if this is a big Steelers lead in the third quarter and they take their foot off the gas, which will be uncomfortable viewing when holding a Steelers -10 ticket. The more I think about this the more I want to take the Steelers -10 and then cover myself with a teaser involving the Steelers at -4, or even finding a way to work the Moneyline play into a parlay.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Pittsburgh Steelers -10 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
Week 11 sees us entering the business end of the season. Thursday Night Football is a divisional clash between the Cardinals and Seahawks and two MVP contendeners in Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray. With nine teams currently sat on 6-3 records we are likely to see teams begin to seperate themselves from the pack this week. The Titans trip to trip to Baltimore to the Ravens is a big game and one which is sure to feature a lot of rushing, elsewhere on Sunday we'll be keeping an eye on the Saints to see how Jameis Winston does as he steps into Drew Brees' spot because of injury. Sunday Night Football sees the Chiefs face the Raiders, looking for revenge after suffering defeat against Jon Gruden's teams earlier in the season. Monday Night Football rounds off the week as we see the Rams face the Bucs in an intriguing primetime clash.
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