- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed an average of 29.3 points per game over the last three weeks
- The Kansas City Chiefs lead the league with 321 points scored (32.1 per game)
The intrigue level of this game has taken a significant hit in the last couple of weeks. The Buccaneers defense, which once looked a potential dominant threat (see the Packers game for an example), has been struggling mightily. Even going further back than the last three games, they allowed 20 points to a Raiders team that was severely hampered and 23 points to the shaky Giants offense.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs offense looks every bit as good as it did in their Super Bowl run. They have scored less than 30 points on just three occasions. The ability to load up points is such a game changer and it piles a lot of pressure on the opposing offense. They average over three points per drive and bleed time, averaging over 40 yards per drive and over three minutes per drive.
That pressure on the Buccaneers offense is going to show, especially in what appears to be potentially wind-affected conditions. The Buccaneers offense is incredibly frustrating. They average the ninth most points per drive, but they do not sustain long drives, ranking 25th in plays per drive and 26th in time per drive.
It is tough to see how the Buccaneers offense, with their 20th ranked passing game in net yards per attempt can hang with the Chiefs, who are a machine right now.
In terms of the total, trusting the Buccaneers offense is my big concern. They have been so up and down over the past few weeks, scoring over 40 points twice and 25 or less in the other three, including a three-point performance when hosting the Saints in Week 9. The weather and potential wind gust could also be a factor.
However, the Chiefs could easily put up 40 points on their own, making it hard to take the under either. In fact, the plays I would consider right now are to take the Chiefs over 29.5 points and the Buccaneers under 26.5. This game has Kansas City showing up big and humiliating Brady and the Buccaneers written all over it.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ -105
NFL Free Picks
Week 12 is finally upon us. As is tradition we have 3 Thanksgiving games, the highlight of which is the third and final game, which sees the Ravens facing the unbeaten Steelers. On Sunday Night Football we see football's oldest rivalry as the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet and on Monday we see the Seahawks at the Eagles. The biggest game of the week for neutrals is probably the Chiefs at Buccaneers, which will pit Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes.
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