- The Denver Broncos offense ranks 30th in average points per game
- The New Orleans Saints offense ranks seventh in points per game while ranking 12th on defense
I had this circled as a potential trap game for the Saints. In the cold against a good Broncos defense was always going to be tough for Drew Brees and his ageing arm. However, Taysom Hill being under center flips the narrative completely. Twice in the last four games the Broncos have allowed over 200 yards to opponents on the ground. That is this the wheelhouse of this Saints offense.
In Week 11 the Saints rushed for 168 yards, with Hill accounting for 51, as well as two rushing touchdowns. This week they are expected to get more from Alvin Kamara in practice, which will open up even more threat for their running game in Week 12. There was also a concerted effort to force the ball to Michael Thomas more with Hill under center, a trend that can only be beneficial if it continues.
As for the Broncos, their offense has been all over the map. 32 combined points in the last two games, having scored 58 combined in the previous two. Drew Lock has been inconsistent to put it nicely and just plain bad at times if we are being brutally honest. They have plenty of weapons, but they will have a hard time making an impact against a Saints defense that has really stood up recently.
Through to their bye, the Saints defense was allowing an average of 29.2 points per game. In the first two weeks out of the bye, that number dropped a little to 23.5. However, in the past three weeks, the Saints have allowed a total of 25 points to opposing offenses. Sure the 49ers and Falcons are not lighting up the league, but Tom Brady and the Buccaneers posted 40-point games either side of that three-point performance in Week 9.
The Saints defensive numbers are somewhat tricky to decipher because of those swings, but ultimately it is a surging defense facing off with a struggling offense. Take the Saints and the points all day. If you are looking for a teaser, taking the Saints to a pick ‘em makes for a nice combination with any other teaser lines you like this week.
I terms of totals, I would take a look at the Broncos under 18.5, but that line is so low I would not bet it with confidence. As for the Saints, their offense is so tough to judge right now that it makes a total impossible to call. Generally they play ball control offense, but Hill showed he is not afraid to let it rip either.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – New Orleans Saints -6 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
Week 12 is finally upon us. As is tradition we have 3 Thanksgiving games, the highlight of which is the third and final game, which sees the Ravens facing the unbeaten Steelers. On Sunday Night Football we see football's oldest rivalry as the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet and on Monday we see the Seahawks at the Eagles. The biggest game of the week for neutrals is probably the Chiefs at Buccaneers, which will pit Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes.
Our talented stable of handicappers, led by Ben Gretch, Davis Mattek, Alex Kirshner, Richard Johnson, Ben Rolfe and more brings complete written and video NFL analysis to our users week after week. Make sure you check the site daily for picks from them all.