- The Indianapolis Colts have scored over 30 points in four of the last five games
- The Tennessee Titans have allowed 27 or more points in four of the last six games and six of the last nine
This game was hanging in the balance when these two teams met back in Week 10. However, a couple of elements went against the Titans and very quickly the Colts were on top., never looking back in the process.
The Colts are built well to face this Titans team. They limit the effectiveness of the run game, ranking third in yards per attempt and they ninth ranking in net yards per passing attempt demonstrates they do not allow many big plays through the air either. Defensively, they play the bend but don’t break mantra well, allowing an average of just 1.83 points per drive. They manage this despite ranking in the middle of the pack in third-down and red-zone conversion rate. Their biggest weapon defensively is the turnover, as they rank third with 17.
However, that is where the elements swing back in the favor of the Titans, who have committed a league-best five turnovers this year. Offensively, they are efficient. They rank top 10 in points, yards and plays per drive, as well third-down and red-zone conversion percentage. Their offense is built to withstand drives and not make mistakes. However, their style also plays right into the hands of the Colts defense in many ways.
On the other side is where the concern comes for the Titans. Defensively, they allow the highest third-down conversion percentage, and rank in the top 10 in red-zone conversion percentage. That has meant they struggle to prevent drives extending, allowing the second most time and plays per drive in the league.
Meanwhile, the Colts offense ranks fifth in net yards per passing attempt, sixth in plays per drive, seventh in average time per drive. Those numbers come from a remarkable ability to avoid third downs, where they convert just 37.5% of the time, the fifth worst number in the league. They also have an impressive kicker who hides their 25th ranked red-zone conversion rate with 23 successful field goals in 26 attempts.
The Colts should be able to move the ball in this one. The Titans defense struggles at times and is without Jadeveon Clowney, who is on IR. Whether this game is close or not depends on how the Titans adjust if they cannot get Derrick Henry rolling. If they can open up the offense successfully, this could be a very high scoring game. However, if they are slow to adjust then the Colts should run away comfortable victors.
I do not feel overly comfortable playing the spread or the game total, but this Colts offense appears to be rolling and I’ll back them to keep doing it against a defense that has continuously struggled this season.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Indianapolis Colts over 27.5 points @ -110
NFL Free Picks
Week 12 is finally upon us. As is tradition we have 3 Thanksgiving games, the highlight of which is the third and final game, which sees the Ravens facing the unbeaten Steelers. On Sunday Night Football we see football's oldest rivalry as the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet and on Monday we see the Seahawks at the Eagles. The biggest game of the week for neutrals is probably the Chiefs at Buccaneers, which will pit Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes.
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