- The Bears have allowed 20.9 points per game to opponents, sixth-fewest in the NFL
On its face, this game seems obvious. The Packers are at home against a Bears team whose season has quickly fallen apart, and who will turn back to Mitchell Trubisky under center for the first time since Week 3. Even though the Bears’ defense is the real deal, their offense is atrocious, and from what we know about Trubisky, he’s unlikely to be the answer.
But the nine-point spread doesn’t do us any favors, because the Bears play slow and play good defense. No team they’ve faced has scored more than 26 points against them; there are 14 defenses across the league whose average points allowed are higher than that. Chicago also has a habit of getting hot offensively late and pulling back into games, so all but one Bears game this season has finished within nine points either way. A backdoor cover feels squarely on the table.
Then there’s the fact that Chicago is coming off a bye, and Matt Nagy’s seat could be warming up. If the Bears have any shot of salvaging a playoff berth after their 5-1 start quickly became a .500 record, this game in Green Bay is massive. They should be well rested, and to the extent extra motivation can exist in sports, the Bears should have it in this game.
So the numbers would suggest the bets are Bears +9 and the under, with the assumption being they can manage Green Bay’s offense enough to keep the game low scoring and close, even if they ultimately lose. But with the Packers are at home and Aaron Rodgers in the midst of a throwback season, those bets seem tough.
Allen Lazard has also returned recently to give Rodgers one more weapon alongside Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Robert Tonyan. Valdes-Scantling does seem legitimately questionable for this one, and that could be big, because he’s been their field-stretcher. It could mean a more deliberate offense centered around shorter throws and Aaron Jones, who is still one of the best backs in the league.
But this is the Packers and the Bears in a cold, night matchup at Lambeau Field. These teams haven’t played a game that has broken this 44-point total since their first matchup in 2018, and even that one only broke it by a field goal. It won’t surprise me if the Packers become the first team to put 30 on the Bears this season, but I still think the value’s on the under here.
NFL Expert Picks
Under 44 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
Week 12 is finally upon us. On Sunday Night Football we see football's oldest rivalry as the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers meet and on Monday we see the Seahawks at the Eagles. The biggest game of the week for neutrals is probably the Chiefs at Buccaneers, which will pit Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes.
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