- The Minnesota Vikings are 2-4 against the spread at home
- The over has hit in all six of the Vikings home games this season
Say what you will about the 1-9 Jacksonville Jaguars, but they have not quit on this season and they are pushing teams hard. Three of their last four games were lost by a combined eight points, while they have scored 20 or more in four of their last five.
No matter who has been under center, this team has found a way to move the ball. Even last week, without DJ Chark and with Mike Glennon commanding the offense, they put up 25 and nearly upset the Cleveland Browns. This week they come up against a Vikings team that nearly lost to Carolina in Week 12 and was beaten by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11, both at home.
The Vikings offense is playing well, but the defense is struggling for any consistency. Despite having a top-10 defense in terms of preventing third-down conversions, they rank in the bottom 10 in metrics such as plays per drive, yards per drive and time per drive. They also rank 22nd in points per drive, allowing 2.44.
All of that suggests that despite their offense being efficient in terms of moving the ball in chunks, a spread of 9.5 points is a tough ask for them to cover, even against a 1-9 team. The Jaguars are going to play hard until the game ends, and a win for the Jaguars in this one would pretty much sum up the Vikings season perfectly. Take the Jaguars getting the points.
At 50.5, the total on this one is interestingly placed. The Jaguars have scored 20 or more points regularly in recent weeks, but do not often get beyond 25. The Vikings are capable of getting beyond the 25-point mark, but not by far with regularity. These two teams combine to average 46.5 points per game, but they also combine to allow of 55 combined.
The better option might be to take the Jaguars over 20.5, a number they have topped in three of the last five weeks. That is also a number the Vikings have allowed more than in the last two weeks straight. However, placing two bets on the arm of a Jaguars QB is something I cannot in good faith recommend.
NFL Expert Picks
1u – Jacksonville Jaguars +9.5 @ -110
NFL Free Picks
We don't have a Thursday Night Football clash this week due to the rescheduled Ravens and Steelers game that took place at the end of Week 12. Week 13 sees a number of divisional clashes with the Saints and Falcons, Colts and Texans, and Rams and Cardinals meeting on Sunday. Sunday Night Football sees the Broncos face the Chiefs in a divisional clash on primetime. On Monday we'll get two games with the Washington Football Team's trip to Pittsburgh televised ahead of the Bills vs. 49ers meeting on Monday Night Football. We get bonus football again on Tuesday with the Ravens welcoming the Cowboys to M&T Bank Stadium.
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